bkfc-fight-night-mohegan-sun-2 Preview & Picks

bkfc-fight-night-mohegan-sun-2 takes place on Thursday, August 20, 2026 at MOHEGAN SUN. The main event features Bryce Henry vs Carlos Trinidad. The card features 10 bouts. Below is our model's read — top edge picks, highest-predictability reads, underdog watch, and a per-bout breakdown generated from the same factor data that powers the research page.

Fights to Watch

Bryce Henry vs Carlos Trinidad

Predictability 58

Welterweight · Model leans Bryce Henry (Low)
Cody Vidal vs Joseph Creer

Predictability 43

Light Heavyweight · Model leans Cody Vidal (Low)
Joey Gambino vs Tommy Strydom

Predictability 40

Featherweight · Model leans Tommy Strydom (Low)

Underdog Watch

No high-edge underdogs flagged on this card.

Main Card Breakdown

Bryce Henry vs Carlos Trinidad · Welterweight

The model favors Bryce Henry based on recent form (henry hotter) and bkfc record (88% vs 50% win rate). Advantage 79/21, predictability 58 (Low).

Cody Vidal vs Joseph Creer · Light Heavyweight

The model favors Cody Vidal based on recent form (vidal hotter) and mma background (vidal deeper background). Advantage 69/31, predictability 43 (Low).

Lardy Navarro vs Robert Fichtner · Bantamweight

The model favors Lardy Navarro based on bkfc record (71% vs 50% win rate) and opponent quality (navarro tougher schedule). Advantage 50/50, predictability 20 (Very Low).

Nate Ghareeb vs Nash Diederichs · Lightweight

The model favors Nash Diederichs based on age (33 vs 26) and reach (-1" diederichs). Advantage 40/60, predictability 33 (Very Low).

Jared Lennon vs Dominick Carey · Bantamweight

The model favors Jared Lennon based on recent form (lennon hotter) and ko rate (65 pt ko-rate gap). Advantage 73/27, predictability 38 (Very Low).

Joey Gambino vs Tommy Strydom · Featherweight

The model favors Tommy Strydom based on bkfc record (50% vs 63% win rate) and ko rate (-15 pt ko-rate gap). Advantage 41/59, predictability 40 (Low).

Chris Perreault vs Joe Powers · Light Heavyweight

The model favors Joe Powers on aggregate factor weight. Advantage 50/50, predictability 18 (Very Low).

Alexandra Ballou vs Sophia Hayes · Women's Bantamweight

The model favors Sophia Hayes based on age (34 vs 20). Advantage 45/55, predictability 21 (Very Low).

Brandon Bushaw vs Matt Denning · Lightweight

The model favors Brandon Bushaw based on recent form (bushaw hotter) and bkfc record (60% vs 50% win rate). Advantage 60/40, predictability 27 (Very Low).

Isaiah Williams vs Nate Larocco · Welterweight

The model favors Nate Larocco on aggregate factor weight. Advantage 50/50, predictability 18 (Very Low).

Dig deeper into the numbers

Full per-bout factor tables, advantage rows, model-vs-market edge bars.

Open research → Full card →