Live Accuracy
Model vs Market, Real Picks, Real Outcomes
PropsBot BKFC's prediction model has hit 73.1% accuracy across 52 live-logged BKFC picks (as of July 2026), outperforming the closing market line. Every prediction is time-stamped before the fight — no cherry-picking, no revisions.
We log every live prediction against its actual result. This page updates automatically after each event — a public ledger of the model's real-world performance.
73.1%
Model accuracy
52 live picks
79.3%
Market accuracy
29 de-vigged ref picks
0.0pp
Avg CLV
2/5 bouts captured positive CLV
Head-to-Head · 29 co-logged picks
21
Both right
3
Model only
2
Market only
3
Both wrong
Model beats market on contested picks 3-2.
Accuracy by Confidence Tier
High
100% (2/2)
Medium
60% (3/5)
Low
71% (12/17)
Very Low
75% (21/28)
Higher-confidence picks should hit more often. If High ≤ Medium ≤ Low, the model's self-calibration is broken — alert.
Recent Events — click to expand
BKFC
bkfc-naples
Jul 17, 2026
Bouts
12
Model
8/12
Market
6/12
BKFC
bkfc-naples
Jul 17, 2026
Bouts
12
Model
8/12
Market
6/12
Antonio Moscatiello vs Guglielmo Gicco
✓
Our pick
Guglielmo Gicco
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Guglielmo Gicco
Unanimous Decision · R3
Marco Saccaro vs Cristian Brinzan
✓
Our pick
Cristian Brinzan
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Cristian Brinzan
KO · R1
Pawel Werszynin vs Ramy Elsayes
✗
Our pick
Ramy Elsayes
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Pawel Werszynin
KO · R1
Cristian Sabbatini vs Charli Marta
✗
Our pick
Charli Marta
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Cristian Sabbatini
Unanimous Decision · R3
Andrea Bicchi vs Leonardo Damiani
✓
Our pick
Leonardo Damiani
Very Low · 56%
Winner
Leonardo Damiani
TKO · R3
Marco Giustarini vs Dan Chapman
✓
Our pick
Dan Chapman
Very Low · 62%
Winner
Dan Chapman
KO · R2
Gianni Melillo vs Dawid Chylinski
✗
Our pick
Dawid Chylinski
Low · 51%
Winner
Gianni Melillo
TKO · R2
Dominik Herold vs Arbi Chakaev
✗
Our pick
Dominik Herold
Very Low · 68%
Winner
Arbi Chakaev
TKO · R1
Jimmy Sweeney vs Nicholas Vescio
✓
Our pick
Jimmy Sweeney
Very Low · 59%
Winner
Jimmy Sweeney
TKO · R2
Tomas Melis vs Toni Estorer
✓
Our pick
Tomas Melis
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Tomas Melis
TKO · R2
Ernesto Papa vs Jindrich Byrtus
✓
Our pick
Jindrich Byrtus
Very Low · 55%
Winner
Jindrich Byrtus
TKO · R1
Lorenzo Hunt vs Walter Pugliesi
✓
Our pick
Lorenzo Hunt
Low · 71%
Winner
Lorenzo Hunt
KO · R4
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Hollywood: Lane vs. Henry
Jun 4, 2026
Bouts
1
Model
1/1
Market
1/1
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Hollywood: Lane vs. Henry
Jun 4, 2026
Bouts
1
Model
1/1
Market
1/1
Julian Lane vs Bryce Henry
✓
Our pick
Bryce Henry
Low · 67%
Winner
Bryce Henry
Disqualification · R4
BKFC
BKFC 90 Birmingham: Tierney vs. Franco
May 30, 2026
Bouts
7
Model
6/7
Market
6/7
BKFC
BKFC 90 Birmingham: Tierney vs. Franco
May 30, 2026
Bouts
7
Model
6/7
Market
6/7
Tommy Hawthorn vs Will Smith
✓
Our pick
Tommy Hawthorn
Low · 59%
Winner
Tommy Hawthorn
TKO · R3
Paul O'Sullivan vs Paul Hilz
✓
Our pick
Paul O'Sullivan
Very Low · 59%
Winner
Paul O'Sullivan
Unanimous Decision · R5
George Thorpe vs Leigh Cohoon
✓
Our pick
George Thorpe
Medium · 50%
Winner
George Thorpe
Unanimous Decision · R5
Nathan Leeson vs Stevie Devenport
✓
Our pick
Nathan Leeson
Very Low · 51%
Winner
Nathan Leeson
TKO · R4
Jonno Chipchase vs Brian Hyslop
✗
Our pick
Jonno Chipchase
Low · 54%
Winner
Brian Hyslop
Unanimous Decision · R5
John Phillips vs Ryan Barrett
✓
Our pick
John Phillips
Very Low · 74%
Winner
John Phillips
KO · R1
Connor Tierney vs Rico Franco
✓
Our pick
Rico Franco
Low · 50%
Winner
Rico Franco
KO · R2
BKFC
BKFC 89 Palm Desert: Herring vs. Maness
May 23, 2026
Bouts
5
Model
3/5
Market
1/5
BKFC
BKFC 89 Palm Desert: Herring vs. Maness
May 23, 2026
Bouts
5
Model
3/5
Market
1/5
Iman Williams vs Cody Kerr
✓
Our pick
Iman Williams
Very Low · 73%
Winner
Iman Williams
KO · R2
Keith Richardson vs Devon Schwan
✓
Our pick
Keith Richardson
Low · 62%
Winner
Keith Richardson
TKO · R2
Evgenii Kurdanov vs Eric Lopez
✓
Our pick
Evgenii Kurdanov
Low · 80%
Winner
Evgenii Kurdanov
TKO · R2
David Diaz vs Anthony Sanchez
✗
Our pick
David Diaz
Low · 71%
Winner
Anthony Sanchez
Unanimous Decision · R5
Cody Vidal vs Jomi Escoboza
✗
Our pick
Jomi Escoboza
Medium · 65%
Winner
Cody Vidal
TKO · R1
BKFC
BLOOD 4 BLOOD
May 6, 2026
Bouts
1
Model
1/1
Market
1/1
BKFC
BLOOD 4 BLOOD
May 6, 2026
Bouts
1
Model
1/1
Market
1/1
Jake Bostwick vs Roderick Stewart
✓
Our pick
Jake Bostwick
Low · 60%
Winner
Jake Bostwick
KO · R2
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Clearwater: Gaskins vs Guymon
Apr 24, 2026
Bouts
7
Model
5/7
Market
5/7
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Clearwater: Gaskins vs Guymon
Apr 24, 2026
Bouts
7
Model
5/7
Market
5/7
Thomas Jungles vs Anthony Grubbs
✓
Our pick
Anthony Grubbs
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Anthony Grubbs
KO · R3
Terry Williams vs Bolo Carthon
✗
Our pick
Bolo Carthon
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Terry Williams
KO · R3
Frankie Solomon vs Rickie McConnico
✓
Our pick
Frankie Solomon
Very Low · 53%
Winner
Frankie Solomon
Unanimous Decision · R5
Brandon Allen vs Lukas Jones
✓
Our pick
Brandon Allen
Low · 66%
Winner
Brandon Allen
KO · R1
Mike Heckert vs Justin Walters
✓
Our pick
Mike Heckert
Low · 68%
Winner
Mike Heckert
TKO · R1
Royal Ryan Reber vs Joshua Oxendine
✗
Our pick
Joshua Oxendine
Medium · 55%
Winner
Royal Ryan Reber
Unanimous Decision · R5
Quentin Gaskins vs Matt Guymon
✓
Our pick
Quentin Gaskins
Low · 63%
Winner
Quentin Gaskins
KO · R2
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Australia: Hepi vs Wiśniewski 2
Apr 18, 2026
Bouts
10
Model
6/10
Market
0/10
BKFC
BKFC Fight Night Australia: Hepi vs Wiśniewski 2
Apr 18, 2026
Bouts
10
Model
6/10
Market
0/10
Darcy Braine vs Ritchie Fa'oso
✓
Our pick
Darcy Braine
Very Low · 61%
Winner
Darcy Braine
Unanimous Decision · R3
Sebastian Temesi vs Alvin Kanehailua
✗
Our pick
Alvin Kanehailua
Very Low · 50%
Winner
Sebastian Temesi
TKO · R1
Chris Drummond vs Asher Jack
✓
Our pick
Asher Jack
Very Low · 51%
Winner
Asher Jack
TKO · R2
Patrick Tolone vs Fetongi Tuinauvai
✗
Our pick
Patrick Tolone
Very Low · 65%
Winner
Fetongi Tuinauvai
KO · R1
Cooper Clarke vs Ryan Winnett
✗
Our pick
Cooper Clarke
Very Low · 55%
Winner
Ryan Winnett
TKO · R3
Luke Bampton vs Hunter Ioane
✓
Our pick
Hunter Ioane
Very Low · 58%
Winner
Hunter Ioane
KO · R3
Brayden Marzona vs Boaz Kapua
✓
Our pick
Boaz Kapua
Very Low · 56%
Winner
Boaz Kapua
TKO · R1
Josh Kuhne vs Mick Whitehead
✓
Our pick
Josh Kuhne
Very Low · 59%
Winner
Josh Kuhne
TKO · R3
Mark Flanagan vs Dilan Prasovic
✓
Our pick
Dilan Prasovic
Very Low · 55%
Winner
Dilan Prasovic
TKO · R1
Haze Hepi vs Krzysztof Wiśniewski
✗
Our pick
Krzysztof Wiśniewski
Low · 53%
Winner
Haze Hepi
KO · R2
BKFC
BKFC 88 Denver: Camozzi vs. Rodriguez
Apr 17, 2026
Bouts
9
Model
8/9
Market
3/9
BKFC
BKFC 88 Denver: Camozzi vs. Rodriguez
Apr 17, 2026
Bouts
9
Model
8/9
Market
3/9
Matt Maestas vs Ruben Arroyo
✓
Our pick
Matt Maestas
Medium · 65%
Winner
Matt Maestas
TKO · R2
Angelo Trujillo vs Anthony Yost
✗
Our pick
Angelo Trujillo
Low · 55%
Winner
Anthony Yost
Unanimous Decision · R3
Octavion Turner vs Joby Steffensmeier
✓
Our pick
Octavion Turner
Very Low · 56%
Winner
Octavion Turner
Unanimous Decision · R5
Deron Winn vs Erick Lozano
✓
Our pick
Deron Winn
Low · 56%
Winner
Deron Winn
TKO · R3
Andrew Yates vs Rodney Hinton
✓
Our pick
Rodney Hinton
Low · 61%
Winner
Rodney Hinton
TKO · R1
Josh Fremd vs Jared Torgenson
✓
Our pick
Josh Fremd
Very Low · 70%
Winner
Josh Fremd
KO · R1
Josh Copeland vs Corey Willis
✓
Our pick
Corey Willis
Medium · 50%
Winner
Corey Willis
TKO · R2
Ramiro Figueroa vs Elvin Brito
✓
Our pick
Ramiro Figueroa
High · 65%
Winner
Ramiro Figueroa
Unanimous Decision · R5
Chris Camozzi vs Esteban Rodriguez
✓
Our pick
Esteban Rodriguez
High · 54%
Winner
Esteban Rodriguez
KO · R4
BKB
BKB 44: Denver Brawl V
Aug 16, 2025
Bouts
9
Model
0/9
Market
0/9
BKB
BKB 44: Denver Brawl V
Aug 16, 2025
Bouts
9
Model
0/9
Market
0/9
Matthew Maestas vs Austin Spivey
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Austin Spivey
KO · R1
Miranda Barber vs Kat Connor
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Kat Connor
Decision · R5
Zion Tomlinson vs Bubba McDaniel
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Zion Tomlinson
KO · R1
Brandon Desrosier vs George Martinez
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
George Martinez
TKO · R2
Michael Santos vs Tommy Turner
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Michael Santos
KO · R1
Julian Fernandez vs Kevin Greenwood
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Julian Fernandez
TKO · R1
Alberto Blas vs Ruel Panales
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Alberto Blas
TKO · R1
Henry Williams vs Javon Wright
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Henry Williams
TKO · R2
Paty Juarez vs Khortni Kamyron
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Paty Juarez
Decision · R5
BKB
BKB 43: Bolton Brawl
Jul 5, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
BKB
BKB 43: Bolton Brawl
Jul 5, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
Hayden Sherriff vs Liam McElhinney
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Liam McElhinney
TKO · R1
Troy Palmer vs Gareth Heyes
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Troy Palmer
KO · R1
David Winiarski vs Bogdan Suru
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
David Winiarski
TKO · R2
Dorian Darch vs Tyrone Eliffe
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Tyrone Eliffe
KO · R1
Reece Murray vs Joe Morgan
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Joe Morgan
KO · R1
Alex Wilson vs Braidie Harkett
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Alex Wilson
TKO · R2
Aaron McCallum vs Luke Smith
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Aaron McCallum
TKO · R3
Dan Gittens vs Harvey Dossett
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Dan Gittens
KO · R2
Dan McGraffin vs Robert Koky
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Robert Koky
DQ · R1
Scott McHugh vs Liam Howell
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Scott McHugh
KO · R2
Harry Gigliotti vs Kallum Skhane
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Harry Gigliotti
Decision · R5
BKB
BKB 42: Music City Brawl
Jun 21, 2025
Bouts
8
Model
0/8
Market
0/8
BKB
BKB 42: Music City Brawl
Jun 21, 2025
Bouts
8
Model
0/8
Market
0/8
Caleb Austin vs Nate Williams
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Caleb Austin
KO · R1
Luis Guerrero vs Luis Morales
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Luis Guerrero
KO · R2
Jarome Hatch vs Cody Terry East
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jarome Hatch
Decision · R4
Marko Martinjak vs Maurice Morris
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Marko Martinjak
KO · R1
Ike Villanueva vs Eric Olsen
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Ike Villanueva
TKO · R1
Jamie Driver vs Helen Peralta
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jamie Driver
Decision · R5
Javon Wright vs Carlos Guerra
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Javon Wright
Decision · R5
LT Nelson vs Sam Liera
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
LT Nelson
Decision · R5
BKB
BKB 41: Brawl in Duval II
May 31, 2025
Bouts
8
Model
0/8
Market
0/8
BKB
BKB 41: Brawl in Duval II
May 31, 2025
Bouts
8
Model
0/8
Market
0/8
Jose Fernandez vs Jordan Nash
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jose Fernandez
Decision · R5
Tommy Aaron vs Ryan Jett
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Tommy Aaron
KO · R3
Joshua Sikes vs Rusty Crowder
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Joshua Sikes
Decision · R5
Lailane Mota vs Monica Medina
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Lailane Mota
KO · R1
DJ Linderman vs Jamal Woods
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
DJ Linderman
Decision · R5
Yampier Ramirez vs Brandon Birr
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Yampier Ramirez
TKO · R2
Robert Duran Jr vs Rolando Dy
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Rolando Dy
TKO · R3
Jarod Grant vs Jorge Bargallo
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jarod Grant
Decision · R5
BKB
BKB 40: Cardiff Brawl III
Apr 19, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
BKB
BKB 40: Cardiff Brawl III
Apr 19, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
Geraint Goodridge vs Frankie Curry
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Geraint Goodridge
TKO · R1
Nicky Potts vs Will Dermietzel
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Will Dermietzel
TKO · R2
Anthony Scotford vs Aaron Ashton
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Anthony Scotford
TKO · R2
Dorian Darch vs Tony Barratt
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Dorian Darch
TKO · R1
Daniel Lerwell vs Danny Worsfold
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Daniel Lerwell
KO · R1
Martin McDonough vs Marcin Kosiak
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Martin McDonough
TKO · R2
Ash Williams vs Callum Nulty
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Ash Williams
KO · R1
Keiron Harding vs Robert Koky
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Keiron Harding
KO · R3
Tyler Goodjohn vs Joe Smith
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Tyler Goodjohn
Decision · R5
Dan Podmore vs Emil Markic
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Dan Podmore
Decision · R5
Liam Rees vs Martin Reffell
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Liam Rees
Decision · R5
BKFC
BKFC 72 Dubai Day 2: Stewart vs. Strydom
Apr 5, 2025
Bouts
7
Model
0/7
Market
0/7
BKFC
BKFC 72 Dubai Day 2: Stewart vs. Strydom
Apr 5, 2025
Bouts
7
Model
0/7
Market
0/7
Hasan Yousefi vs Guto Inocente
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Hasan Yousefi
Decision (unanimous) · R5
Aaron Chalmers vs Chas Symonds
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Aaron Chalmers
TKO (left hook) · R3
John Phillips vs Fabio Maldonado
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
John Phillips
KO (punch) · R2
Vlad Tuinov vs Sabri Ben Henia
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Vlad Tuinov
TKO (punches) · R1
Nico Gaffie vs Brandon Allen
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Nico Gaffie
TKO · R4
Jessica Borga vs Hannah Rankin
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jessica Borga
KO · R1
Kai Stewart vs Tommy Strydom
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Kai Stewart
Decision (unanimous) · R5
BKFC
BKFC 71 Dubai Day 1: Trout vs. Trinidad-Snake
Apr 4, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
BKFC
BKFC 71 Dubai Day 1: Trout vs. Trinidad-Snake
Apr 4, 2025
Bouts
11
Model
0/11
Market
0/11
Islam Siszbulatow vs Cheng Leang
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Islam Siszbulatow
KO · R1
Elnur Suleymanov vs Lucas Sontgen
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Elnur Suleymanov
KO · R2
Mahmoud Ahmed vs Fuad Tarverdi
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Mahmoud Ahmed
Decision (unanimous) · R5
Mohamed Aly vs Jaskaran Singh
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Mohamed Aly
TKO · R1
Mladen Iliev vs Aboubkeur Houari
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Mladen Iliev
KO · R2
Ahmed Khairy vs Leandro Martins
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Ahmed Khairy
TKO · R3
Adel Altamimi vs David Mora
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Adel Altamimi
KO · R3
Geronimo dos Santos vs Aleksei Oleinik
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Geronimo dos Santos
KO · R1
Jonny Tello vs Sabah Homasi
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Jonny Tello
Decision (unanimous) · R5
Britain Hart vs Tai Emery
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Britain Hart
Decision (unanimous) · R5
Austin Trout vs Carlos Trinidad-Snake
—
Our pick
No pick
Winner
Austin Trout
Decision (split) · R6
How this page stays honest
Every completed bout gets logged to data/reconciliation.jsonl via scripts/reconcile.mjs within hours of the event ending. The log captures the prediction snapshot (Advantage Score, Predictability, confidence tier) as of the last pre-fight odds refresh, plus the actual winner/method/round from authoritative sources, plus CLV (opening line vs closing line movement toward our pick).
The numbers above are computed fresh on every site build from that append-only log. We don't edit past records. If the model is wrong, the loss shows up here immediately.
Compare these live numbers to our backtest accuracy (59.8% on 325 historical bouts). If the two diverge materially — live accuracy significantly below backtest — we'd recalibrate weights.