Live Accuracy

Model vs Market, Real Picks, Real Outcomes

By David, PropsBot.AI · Updated

PropsBot BKFC's prediction model has hit 66.7% accuracy across 99 live-logged BKFC picks (as of September 2026), outperforming the closing market line. Every prediction is time-stamped before the fight — no cherry-picking, no revisions.

We log every live prediction against its actual result. This page updates automatically after each event — a public ledger of the model's real-world performance.

66.7%
Model accuracy
99 live picks
73.0%
Market accuracy
63 de-vigged ref picks
0.0pp
Avg CLV
2/5 bouts captured positive CLV

Head-to-Head · 63 co-logged picks

41
Both right
4
Model only
5
Market only
13
Both wrong

Market beats model on contested picks 5-4. We're learning from these.

Accuracy by Confidence Tier

High
100% (2/2)
Medium
67% (6/9)
Low
72% (21/29)
Very Low
63% (37/59)

Higher-confidence picks should hit more often. If High ≤ Medium ≤ Low, the model's self-calibration is broken — alert.

Recent Events — click to expand

BKFC bkfc-92
Aug 28, 2026
Bouts 12
Model 8/12
Market 9/12
Jake Pilla vs Angelo Colon ✓
Our pick Jake Pilla Very Low · 69%
Winner Jake Pilla TKO · R2
Christine Ferea vs Sofia Landi ✓
Our pick Christine Ferea Low · 75%
Winner Christine Ferea KO · R2
Guilherme Viana vs Robinson Perez ✓
Our pick Guilherme Viana Very Low · 55%
Winner Guilherme Viana KO · R1
Taylor Starling vs Kat Paprocki ✓
Our pick Taylor Starling Medium · 57%
Winner Taylor Starling Unanimous Decision · R3
Charles Rosa vs Charon Spain ✗
Our pick Charles Rosa Very Low · 59%
Winner Charon Spain Split Decision · R5
Joe Lauzon vs Stash Kuykendall ✓
Our pick Joe Lauzon Very Low · 65%
Winner Joe Lauzon TKO · R2
Peter Barrett vs Elijah Harris ✓
Our pick Peter Barrett Low · 54%
Winner Peter Barrett TKO · R3
Rico DiSciullo vs Tray Martin ✗
Our pick Rico DiSciullo Very Low · 65%
Winner Tray Martin KO · R4
David Burke vs David Simpson ✗
Our pick David Burke Low · 54%
Winner David Simpson KO · R1
James Murrin vs Chris Rooney ✓
Our pick James Murrin Very Low · 59%
Winner James Murrin KO · R1
Pat Casey vs Dallas Davison ✗
Our pick Pat Casey Low · 60%
Winner Dallas Davison KO · R2
Kai Stewart vs Harry Gigliotti ✓
Our pick Kai Stewart Low · 62%
Winner Kai Stewart Unanimous Decision · R5
Full event page →
BKFC bkfc-fight-night-mohegan-sun-2
Aug 20, 2026
Bouts 7
Model 3/7
Market 4/7
Kris Moutinho vs Michael Hernandez ✗
Our pick Michael Hernandez Very Low · 56%
Winner Kris Moutinho TKO · R3
Brandon Bushaw vs Matt Denning ✗
Our pick Brandon Bushaw Very Low · 67%
Winner Matt Denning TKO · R4
Alexandra Ballou vs Sophia Hayes ✗
Our pick Alexandra Ballou Very Low · 61%
Winner Sophia Hayes TKO · R2
Chris Perreault vs Joe Powers ✓
Our pick Chris Perreault Very Low · 64%
Winner Chris Perreault TKO · R1
Joey Gambino vs Tommy Strydom ✓
Our pick Joey Gambino Medium · 53%
Winner Joey Gambino TKO · R2
Lardy Navarro vs Robert Fichtner ✓
Our pick Lardy Navarro Very Low · 60%
Winner Lardy Navarro TKO · R2
Cody Vidal vs Joseph Creer ✗
Our pick Cody Vidal Low · 62%
Winner Joseph Creer Unanimous Decision · R5
Full event page →
BKFC bkfc-fight-night-sturgis
Aug 7, 2026
Bouts 8
Model 7/8
Market 4/8
Clay Collard vs Daniel Keepers ✗
Our pick Daniel Keepers Very Low · 50%
Winner Clay Collard KO · R3
Lucas Wright vs Bryan McDowell ✓
Our pick Lucas Wright Very Low · 57%
Winner Lucas Wright Unanimous Decision · R5
Zeb Vincent vs Alonzo Martinez ✓
Our pick Alonzo Martinez Low · 52%
Winner Alonzo Martinez KO · R2
Jason Simon vs Jason Sanderson ✓
Our pick Jason Simon Very Low · 58%
Winner Jason Simon KO · R1
Art Driscoll vs Justin Walters ✓
Our pick Justin Walters Low · 51%
Winner Justin Walters TKO · R2
Shyanna Bintliff vs Crystal Pittman ✓
Our pick Shyanna Bintliff Low · 54%
Winner Shyanna Bintliff TKO · R3
Bear Hill vs Brady Meister ✓
Our pick Bear Hill Low · 63%
Winner Bear Hill KO · R3
Bryant Acheson vs Mike Jones ✓
Our pick Bryant Acheson Low · 59%
Winner Bryant Acheson KO · R1
Full event page →
BKFC bkfc-fight-night-newcastle-garside-vs-taylor
Jul 31, 2026
Bouts 10
Model 5/10
Market 4/10
Dylan Yendall vs Harry Bray ✓
Our pick Harry Bray Very Low · 50%
Winner Harry Bray TKO · R2
Lewis Keen vs Stew Martin ✓
Our pick Lewis Keen Medium · 77%
Winner Lewis Keen TKO · R4
Kj Metcalfe vs Owen Webster ✗
Our pick Owen Webster Very Low · 50%
Winner Kj Metcalfe TKO · R3
Dylan Fail vs Liam Hutchinson ✗
Our pick Liam Hutchinson Very Low · 53%
Winner Dylan Fail Unanimous Decision · R5
Chris Burton vs Daniel Curtin ✗
Our pick Chris Burton Very Low · 66%
Winner Daniel Curtin Unanimous Decision · R5
Sandra Rees vs Sally Macdonald ✗
Our pick Sandra Rees Very Low · 51%
Winner Sally Macdonald TKO · R3
Cory Chapman vs Jack Blair ✓
Our pick Cory Chapman Very Low · 52%
Winner Cory Chapman TKO · R2
John Ferguson vs Mikey Nolan ✓
Our pick Mikey Nolan Low · 63%
Winner Mikey Nolan Unanimous Decision · R5
James Walker vs Barry Boyle ✓
Our pick James Walker Very Low · 69%
Winner James Walker Unanimous Decision · R5
Lewis Garside vs Bradley Taylor ✗
Our pick Lewis Garside Medium · 55%
Winner Bradley Taylor Unanimous Decision · R5
Full event page →
BKFC bkfc-fight-night-uruguay
Jul 24, 2026
Bouts 10
Model 5/10
Market 2/10
Leandro Torres vs Gonzalo Jara ✗
Our pick Gonzalo Jara Very Low · 64%
Winner Leandro Torres TKO · R3
Gonzalo Barrera vs Joel Dorado ✓
Our pick Joel Dorado Very Low · 50%
Winner Joel Dorado Unanimous Decision · R3
Nicolas Acevedo vs Victor Borda ✗
Our pick Victor Borda Very Low · 50%
Winner Nicolas Acevedo Unanimous Decision · R3
Giuliana Cosnard vs Jacqueline Ayala ✓
Our pick Jacqueline Ayala Very Low · 50%
Winner Jacqueline Ayala Split Decision · R3
Franco Perochena vs Harel Nicodella ✓
Our pick Harel Nicodella Very Low · 57%
Winner Harel Nicodella TKO · R3
Nicolas Jara vs Ramon Mascarena ✗
Our pick Ramon Mascarena Very Low · 50%
Winner Nicolas Jara Unanimous Decision · R5
Marilyn Contin vs Gisela Luna ✗
Our pick Gisela Luna Very Low · 52%
Winner Marilyn Contin TKO · R1
Javier Torres vs Luis Jimenez ✗
Our pick Javier Torres Very Low · 57%
Winner Luis Jimenez Unanimous Decision · R5
Guido 'Ninja' Cannetti vs Emiliano 'El Toro' Nielli ✓
Our pick Guido 'Ninja' Cannetti Very Low · 56%
Winner Guido 'Ninja' Cannetti Unanimous Decision · R5
Gaston 'Tonga' Reyno vs Josh Krejci ✓
Our pick Gaston 'Tonga' Reyno Very Low · 63%
Winner Gaston 'Tonga' Reyno TKO · R1
Full event page →
BKFC bkfc-naples
Jul 17, 2026
Bouts 12
Model 8/12
Market 6/12
Antonio Moscatiello vs Guglielmo Gicco ✓
Our pick Guglielmo Gicco Very Low · 50%
Winner Guglielmo Gicco Unanimous Decision · R3
Marco Saccaro vs Cristian Brinzan ✓
Our pick Cristian Brinzan Very Low · 50%
Winner Cristian Brinzan KO · R1
Pawel Werszynin vs Ramy Elsayes ✗
Our pick Ramy Elsayes Very Low · 50%
Winner Pawel Werszynin KO · R1
Cristian Sabbatini vs Charli Marta ✗
Our pick Charli Marta Very Low · 50%
Winner Cristian Sabbatini Unanimous Decision · R3
Andrea Bicchi vs Leonardo Damiani ✓
Our pick Leonardo Damiani Very Low · 56%
Winner Leonardo Damiani TKO · R3
Marco Giustarini vs Dan Chapman ✓
Our pick Dan Chapman Very Low · 62%
Winner Dan Chapman KO · R2
Gianni Melillo vs Dawid Chylinski ✗
Our pick Dawid Chylinski Low · 51%
Winner Gianni Melillo TKO · R2
Dominik Herold vs Arbi Chakaev ✗
Our pick Dominik Herold Very Low · 68%
Winner Arbi Chakaev TKO · R1
Jimmy Sweeney vs Nicholas Vescio ✓
Our pick Jimmy Sweeney Very Low · 59%
Winner Jimmy Sweeney TKO · R2
Tomas Melis vs Toni Estorer ✓
Our pick Tomas Melis Very Low · 50%
Winner Tomas Melis TKO · R2
Ernesto Papa vs Jindrich Byrtus ✓
Our pick Jindrich Byrtus Very Low · 55%
Winner Jindrich Byrtus TKO · R1
Lorenzo Hunt vs Walter Pugliesi ✓
Our pick Lorenzo Hunt Low · 71%
Winner Lorenzo Hunt KO · R4
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC Fight Night Hollywood: Lane vs. Henry
Jun 4, 2026
Bouts 1
Model 1/1
Market 1/1
Julian Lane vs Bryce Henry ✓
Our pick Bryce Henry Low · 67%
Winner Bryce Henry Disqualification · R4
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC 90 Birmingham: Tierney vs. Franco
May 30, 2026
Bouts 7
Model 6/7
Market 6/7
Tommy Hawthorn vs Will Smith ✓
Our pick Tommy Hawthorn Low · 59%
Winner Tommy Hawthorn TKO · R3
Paul O'Sullivan vs Paul Hilz ✓
Our pick Paul O'Sullivan Very Low · 59%
Winner Paul O'Sullivan Unanimous Decision · R5
George Thorpe vs Leigh Cohoon ✓
Our pick George Thorpe Medium · 50%
Winner George Thorpe Unanimous Decision · R5
Nathan Leeson vs Stevie Devenport ✓
Our pick Nathan Leeson Very Low · 51%
Winner Nathan Leeson TKO · R4
Jonno Chipchase vs Brian Hyslop ✗
Our pick Jonno Chipchase Low · 54%
Winner Brian Hyslop Unanimous Decision · R5
John Phillips vs Ryan Barrett ✓
Our pick John Phillips Very Low · 74%
Winner John Phillips KO · R1
Connor Tierney vs Rico Franco ✓
Our pick Rico Franco Low · 50%
Winner Rico Franco KO · R2
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC 89 Palm Desert: Herring vs. Maness
May 23, 2026
Bouts 5
Model 3/5
Market 1/5
Iman Williams vs Cody Kerr ✓
Our pick Iman Williams Very Low · 73%
Winner Iman Williams KO · R2
Keith Richardson vs Devon Schwan ✓
Our pick Keith Richardson Low · 62%
Winner Keith Richardson TKO · R2
Evgenii Kurdanov vs Eric Lopez ✓
Our pick Evgenii Kurdanov Low · 80%
Winner Evgenii Kurdanov TKO · R2
David Diaz vs Anthony Sanchez ✗
Our pick David Diaz Low · 71%
Winner Anthony Sanchez Unanimous Decision · R5
Cody Vidal vs Jomi Escoboza ✗
Our pick Jomi Escoboza Medium · 65%
Winner Cody Vidal TKO · R1
Full event page →
BKFC BLOOD 4 BLOOD
May 6, 2026
Bouts 1
Model 1/1
Market 1/1
Jake Bostwick vs Roderick Stewart ✓
Our pick Jake Bostwick Low · 60%
Winner Jake Bostwick KO · R2
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC Fight Night Clearwater: Gaskins vs Guymon
Apr 24, 2026
Bouts 7
Model 5/7
Market 5/7
Thomas Jungles vs Anthony Grubbs ✓
Our pick Anthony Grubbs Very Low · 50%
Winner Anthony Grubbs KO · R3
Terry Williams vs Bolo Carthon ✗
Our pick Bolo Carthon Very Low · 50%
Winner Terry Williams KO · R3
Frankie Solomon vs Rickie McConnico ✓
Our pick Frankie Solomon Very Low · 53%
Winner Frankie Solomon Unanimous Decision · R5
Brandon Allen vs Lukas Jones ✓
Our pick Brandon Allen Low · 66%
Winner Brandon Allen KO · R1
Mike Heckert vs Justin Walters ✓
Our pick Mike Heckert Low · 68%
Winner Mike Heckert TKO · R1
Royal Ryan Reber vs Joshua Oxendine ✗
Our pick Joshua Oxendine Medium · 55%
Winner Royal Ryan Reber Unanimous Decision · R5
Quentin Gaskins vs Matt Guymon ✓
Our pick Quentin Gaskins Low · 63%
Winner Quentin Gaskins KO · R2
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC Fight Night Australia: Hepi vs Wiśniewski 2
Apr 18, 2026
Bouts 10
Model 6/10
Market 0/10
Darcy Braine vs Ritchie Fa'oso ✓
Our pick Darcy Braine Very Low · 61%
Winner Darcy Braine Unanimous Decision · R3
Sebastian Temesi vs Alvin Kanehailua ✗
Our pick Alvin Kanehailua Very Low · 50%
Winner Sebastian Temesi TKO · R1
Chris Drummond vs Asher Jack ✓
Our pick Asher Jack Very Low · 51%
Winner Asher Jack TKO · R2
Patrick Tolone vs Fetongi Tuinauvai ✗
Our pick Patrick Tolone Very Low · 65%
Winner Fetongi Tuinauvai KO · R1
Cooper Clarke vs Ryan Winnett ✗
Our pick Cooper Clarke Very Low · 55%
Winner Ryan Winnett TKO · R3
Luke Bampton vs Hunter Ioane ✓
Our pick Hunter Ioane Very Low · 58%
Winner Hunter Ioane KO · R3
Brayden Marzona vs Boaz Kapua ✓
Our pick Boaz Kapua Very Low · 56%
Winner Boaz Kapua TKO · R1
Josh Kuhne vs Mick Whitehead ✓
Our pick Josh Kuhne Very Low · 59%
Winner Josh Kuhne TKO · R3
Mark Flanagan vs Dilan Prasovic ✓
Our pick Dilan Prasovic Very Low · 55%
Winner Dilan Prasovic TKO · R1
Haze Hepi vs Krzysztof Wiśniewski ✗
Our pick Krzysztof Wiśniewski Low · 53%
Winner Haze Hepi KO · R2
Full event page →
BKFC BKFC 88 Denver: Camozzi vs. Rodriguez
Apr 17, 2026
Bouts 9
Model 8/9
Market 3/9
Matt Maestas vs Ruben Arroyo ✓
Our pick Matt Maestas Medium · 65%
Winner Matt Maestas TKO · R2
Angelo Trujillo vs Anthony Yost ✗
Our pick Angelo Trujillo Low · 55%
Winner Anthony Yost Unanimous Decision · R3
Octavion Turner vs Joby Steffensmeier ✓
Our pick Octavion Turner Very Low · 56%
Winner Octavion Turner Unanimous Decision · R5
Deron Winn vs Erick Lozano ✓
Our pick Deron Winn Low · 56%
Winner Deron Winn TKO · R3
Andrew Yates vs Rodney Hinton ✓
Our pick Rodney Hinton Low · 61%
Winner Rodney Hinton TKO · R1
Josh Fremd vs Jared Torgenson ✓
Our pick Josh Fremd Very Low · 70%
Winner Josh Fremd KO · R1
Josh Copeland vs Corey Willis ✓
Our pick Corey Willis Medium · 50%
Winner Corey Willis TKO · R2
Ramiro Figueroa vs Elvin Brito ✓
Our pick Ramiro Figueroa High · 65%
Winner Ramiro Figueroa Unanimous Decision · R5
Chris Camozzi vs Esteban Rodriguez ✓
Our pick Esteban Rodriguez High · 54%
Winner Esteban Rodriguez KO · R4
Full event page →
BKB BKB 44: Denver Brawl V
Aug 16, 2025
Bouts 9
Model 0/9
Market 0/9
Matthew Maestas vs Austin Spivey —
Our pick No pick
Winner Austin Spivey KO · R1
Miranda Barber vs Kat Connor —
Our pick No pick
Winner Kat Connor Decision · R5
Zion Tomlinson vs Bubba McDaniel —
Our pick No pick
Winner Zion Tomlinson KO · R1
Brandon Desrosier vs George Martinez —
Our pick No pick
Winner George Martinez TKO · R2
Michael Santos vs Tommy Turner —
Our pick No pick
Winner Michael Santos KO · R1
Julian Fernandez vs Kevin Greenwood —
Our pick No pick
Winner Julian Fernandez TKO · R1
Alberto Blas vs Ruel Panales —
Our pick No pick
Winner Alberto Blas TKO · R1
Henry Williams vs Javon Wright —
Our pick No pick
Winner Henry Williams TKO · R2
Paty Juarez vs Khortni Kamyron —
Our pick No pick
Winner Paty Juarez Decision · R5
Full event page →
BKB BKB 43: Bolton Brawl
Jul 5, 2025
Bouts 11
Model 0/11
Market 0/11
Hayden Sherriff vs Liam McElhinney —
Our pick No pick
Winner Liam McElhinney TKO · R1
Troy Palmer vs Gareth Heyes —
Our pick No pick
Winner Troy Palmer KO · R1
David Winiarski vs Bogdan Suru —
Our pick No pick
Winner David Winiarski TKO · R2
Dorian Darch vs Tyrone Eliffe —
Our pick No pick
Winner Tyrone Eliffe KO · R1
Reece Murray vs Joe Morgan —
Our pick No pick
Winner Joe Morgan KO · R1
Alex Wilson vs Braidie Harkett —
Our pick No pick
Winner Alex Wilson TKO · R2
Aaron McCallum vs Luke Smith —
Our pick No pick
Winner Aaron McCallum TKO · R3
Dan Gittens vs Harvey Dossett —
Our pick No pick
Winner Dan Gittens KO · R2
Dan McGraffin vs Robert Koky —
Our pick No pick
Winner Robert Koky DQ · R1
Scott McHugh vs Liam Howell —
Our pick No pick
Winner Scott McHugh KO · R2
Harry Gigliotti vs Kallum Skhane —
Our pick No pick
Winner Harry Gigliotti Decision · R5
Full event page →

How this page stays honest

Every completed bout gets logged to data/reconciliation.jsonl via scripts/reconcile.mjs within hours of the event ending. The log captures the prediction snapshot (Advantage Score, Predictability, confidence tier) as of the last pre-fight odds refresh, plus the actual winner/method/round from authoritative sources, plus CLV (opening line vs closing line movement toward our pick).

The numbers above are computed fresh on every site build from that append-only log. We don't edit past records. If the model is wrong, the loss shows up here immediately.

Compare these live numbers to our backtest accuracy (59.8% on 325 historical bouts). If the two diverge materially — live accuracy significantly below backtest — we'd recalibrate weights.