Live Accuracy
Model vs Market, Real Picks, Real Outcomes
We log every live prediction against its actual result. This page updates automatically after each event. No cherry-picking, no revisions — a public ledger of the model's real-world performance.
Backtest · Live ledger starts after first completed event
59.8%
Historical accuracy
127 point-in-time picks
+9.8pp
Edge over coin-flip
Brier 0.2473 (baseline 0.25)
325
Bouts backtested
Point-in-time ELO + odds at event time
Per-Factor Historical Accuracy
Recent Form (n=90)
57.8%
BKFC Record (n=96)
57.3%
Reach (n=140)
52.1%
Height (n=93)
50.5%
Age (n=147)
49.0%
Each factor's accuracy is measured independently against held-out fights. Factors above ~54% add real signal; below 52% is noise.
Live ledger
After the next event finishes, every live pick gets auto-reconciled against the actual result and posted here — no cherry-picking, no revisions.