Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-mohegan-sun-2

Thursday, August 20, 2026 MOHEGAN SUN
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 12 bouts Avg edge 10.3pt Model 7:55 PM ET Odds 9:44 AM ET
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Where the data disagrees with the market

#1
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Joe Powers
Advantage 36 · Market 18%
+17.6PT
Predictability 26
#2
Main Card · Lightweight
Nash Diederichs
Advantage 45 · Market 28%
+16.9PT
Predictability 23
#3
Main Card · Featherweight
Michael Hernandez
Advantage 56 · Market 42%
+14.2PT
Predictability 31

Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.

Every bout on the card

Main Event · Welterweight
#1
Bryce Henry 70 ADV
USBryce Henry
8-0 · age 25 · 80" reach
VS
Carlos Trinidad 30 ADV
USCarlos Trinidad
7-2 · age 30 · 78" reach
Predictability
52 Marginal
Model
70%
30%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W-W-W-W
Recent Form
—
7-0
BKFC Record
7-1
25
Age
30
80"
Reach
78"
3mo ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
67%
Opponent Quality
—
7 fights
BKFC Experience
8 fights

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Bryce Henry on Tapology → · Carlos Trinidad on Tapology →
Bryce Henry

Camp News

Carlos Trinidad

Camp News

Co-Main · Light Heavyweight
#2
Cody Vidal 62 ADV
USCody Vidal
4-2 · age 37 · 74" reach
VS
Joseph Creer 38 ADV
USJoseph Creer
7-3 · age 44 · 75" reach
Predictability
39 Marginal
Joseph Creer def. Cody Vidal via Unanimous Decision · Round 5
Our pre-fight pick: Cody Vidal ✗
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1505
ELO Rating
1481
W-L
Recent Form
L
4-1
BKFC Record
6-3
37
Age
44
74"
Reach
75" ★
3-1
MMA Background
—
3mo ago
Activity
3.5y ago
1/1 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
70%
Opponent Quality
90% ★
5 fights
BKFC Experience
9 fights ★

Things to consider

Joseph Creer is 7 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Cody Vidal on Tapology → · Joseph Creer on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#3
Lardy Navarro 60 ADV
USLardy Navarro
5-1 · age 24 · 70" reach
VS
Robert Fichtner 40 ADV
Robert Fichtner
0-1
Predictability
25 Weak signal
Lardy Navarro def. Robert Fichtner via TKO · Round 2
Our pre-fight pick: Lardy Navarro ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
4-1
BKFC Record
0-0
3.5y ago
Activity
— ★
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
100%
Opponent Quality
—
5 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
Research elsewhere: Lardy Navarro on Tapology → · Robert Fichtner on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#4
Nate Ghareeb 55 ADV
USNate Ghareeb
0-1 · age 33 · 69" reach
VS
Nash Diederichs 45 ADV
CANash Diederichs
1-2 · age 26 · 70" reach
Predictability
23 Weak signal
Model
55%
45%
Market
72%-345
+23028%
⚠️ Model likes Nash Diederichs +16.9 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-1
BKFC Record
1-2
33
Age
26 ★
69"
Reach
70" ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
5'8"
Height
5'9" ★

Things to consider

Model and market disagree by 16.9pt toward Nash Diederichs — but confidence is low and the market may know something the data does not. Lines move for reasons: injuries, weight miss, camp news. Check BKFC weigh-in results before betting.

Nate Ghareeb is 7 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Nate Ghareeb on Tapology → · Nash Diederichs on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#5
Jared Lennon 71 ADV
USJared Lennon
1-2 · age 30 · 73" reach
VS
Dominick Carey 29 ADV
USDominick Carey
2-1 · age 25 · 70" reach
Predictability
48 Marginal
Model
71%
29%
Market
69%-286
+19531%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
1-1
BKFC Record
1-1
100%
KO Rate
—
30
Age
25
73"
Reach
70"
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
33%
Opponent Quality
— ★
2 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
5'10"
Height
5'9"

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Jared Lennon has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Dominick Carey can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Jared Lennon on Tapology → · Dominick Carey on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#6
Joey Gambino 53 ADV
USJoey Gambino
2-0 · age 37 · 69" reach
VS
Tommy Strydom 47 ADV
ZATommy Strydom
4-3 · age 40 · 70" reach
Predictability
43 Marginal
Joey Gambino def. Tommy Strydom via TKO · Round 2
Our pre-fight pick: Joey Gambino ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1-0
BKFC Record
4-2
—
KO Rate
50% ★
37
Age
40
69"
Reach
70" ★
—
Activity
1.4y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
1 fights
BKFC Experience
6 fights ★
5'8"
Height
5'7"

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Joey Gambino on Tapology → · Tommy Strydom on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#7
Chris Perreault 64 ADV
Chris Perreault
1-0
VS
Joe Powers 36 ADV
Joe Powers
0-1
Predictability
26 Weak signal
Chris Perreault def. Joe Powers via TKO · Round 1
Our pre-fight pick: Chris Perreault ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Model and market disagree by 17.6pt toward Joe Powers — but confidence is low and the market may know something the data does not. Lines move for reasons: injuries, weight miss, camp news. Check BKFC weigh-in results before betting.

Research elsewhere: Chris Perreault on Tapology → · Joe Powers on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Bantamweight
#8
Alexandra Ballou 61 ADV
USAlexandra Ballou
0-1 · age 34 · 67" reach
VS
Sophia Hayes 39 ADV
USSophia Hayes
0-1 · age 20 · 67" reach
Predictability
27 Weak signal
Sophia Hayes def. Alexandra Ballou via TKO · Round 2
Our pre-fight pick: Alexandra Ballou ✗
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-1
34
Age
20 ★
67"
Reach
67"
0 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
5'7"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

Alexandra Ballou is 14 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Alexandra Ballou on Tapology → · Sophia Hayes on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#9
Brandon Bushaw 67 ADV
USBrandon Bushaw
2-2 · age 44
VS
Matt Denning 33 ADV
Matt Denning
1-0
Predictability
31 Weak signal
Matt Denning def. Brandon Bushaw via TKO · Round 4
Our pre-fight pick: Brandon Bushaw ✗
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-1
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
3.6y ago
Activity
— ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
0%
Opponent Quality
— ★
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Matt Denning has finished 100% of BKFC wins by KO — elite finish rate. Going to the cards neutralizes this edge.

Research elsewhere: Brandon Bushaw on Tapology → · Matt Denning on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#10
Isaiah Williams 32 ADV
USIsaiah Williams
0-1 · age 34 · 73" reach
VS
Nate Larocco 68 ADV
Nate Larocco
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
32%
68%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-1
BKFC Record
0-0 ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Nate Larocco is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Isaiah Williams's experience.

Research elsewhere: Isaiah Williams on Tapology → · Nate Larocco on Tapology →
Main Event · Welterweight
#12
Bryce Henry 72 ADV
USBryce Henry
8-0 · age 25 · 80" reach
VS
28 ADV
Carlos Trinidad-Snake
1-1
Predictability
53 Marginal
Model
72%
28%
Market
66%-245
+17034%
⚠️ Model likes Bryce Henry +5.9 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1585
ELO Rating
1498
W-W-W-W
Recent Form
L-W
7-0
BKFC Record
1-1
3mo ago
Activity
1.4y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
67%
Opponent Quality
78%
7 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
Research elsewhere: Bryce Henry on Tapology → · Carlos Trinidad-Snake on Tapology →
Bryce Henry

Camp News

Carlos Trinidad-Snake

Camp News

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.