Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-mohegan-sun-2

Thursday, August 20, 2026 In 28 days MOHEGAN SUN
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 10 bouts Model 8:47 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Welterweight
#1
Bryce Henry 79 ADV
USBryce Henry
6-0 · age 25 · 80" reach
VS
Carlos Trinidad 21 ADV
USCarlos Trinidad
0-0 · age 30 · 78" reach
Predictability
58 Solid
Model
79%
21%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W-W-W-W
Recent Form
—
6-0
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
25
Age
30
80"
Reach
78"
49d ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
67%
Opponent Quality
—
6 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Carlos Trinidad is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Bryce Henry's experience.

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Bryce Henry on Tapology → · Carlos Trinidad on Tapology →
Bryce Henry

Camp News

Carlos Trinidad

Camp News

Co-Main · Light Heavyweight
#2
Cody Vidal 69 ADV
USCody Vidal
3-1 · age 37 · 74" reach
VS
Joseph Creer 31 ADV
USJoseph Creer
6-3 · age 44 · 75" reach
Predictability
43 Marginal
Model
69%
31%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1505
ELO Rating
1481
W-L
Recent Form
L
3-1
BKFC Record
6-3
37
Age
44
74"
Reach
75" ★
3-1
MMA Background
—
2mo ago
Activity
3.4y ago
1/1 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
72%
Opponent Quality
88% ★
4 fights
BKFC Experience
9 fights ★

Things to consider

Joseph Creer is 7 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Cody Vidal on Tapology → · Joseph Creer on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#3
Lardy Navarro 50 ADV
USLardy Navarro
4-1 · age 24 · 70" reach
VS
50 ADV
Robert Fichtner
0-0
Predictability
20 Weak signal
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
4-1
BKFC Record
0-0
3.4y ago
Activity
— ★
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
100%
Opponent Quality
—
5 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Robert Fichtner is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Lardy Navarro's experience.

Research elsewhere: Lardy Navarro on Tapology → · Robert Fichtner on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#4
Nate Ghareeb 40 ADV
USNate Ghareeb
0-0 · age 33 · 69" reach
VS
Nash Diederichs 60 ADV
CANash Diederichs
0-0 · age 26 · 70" reach
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
40%
60%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
33
Age
26 ★
69"
Reach
70" ★
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
5'8"
Height
5'9" ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Nate Ghareeb is 7 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Nate Ghareeb on Tapology → · Nash Diederichs on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#5
Jared Lennon 73 ADV
USJared Lennon
1-1 · age 30 · 73" reach
VS
Dominick Carey 27 ADV
USDominick Carey
0-0 · age 25 · 70" reach
Predictability
38 Marginal
Model
73%
27%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
1-1
BKFC Record
0-0
100%
KO Rate
—
30
Age
25
73"
Reach
70"
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
25%
Opponent Quality
— ★
2 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
5'10"
Height
5'9"

Things to consider

Dominick Carey is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Jared Lennon's experience.

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Jared Lennon has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Dominick Carey can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Jared Lennon on Tapology → · Dominick Carey on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#6
Joey Gambino 41 ADV
USJoey Gambino
0-0 · age 37 · 69" reach
VS
Tommy Strydom 59 ADV
ZATommy Strydom
4-2 · age 40 · 70" reach
Predictability
40 Marginal
Model
41%
59%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
4-2 ★
—
KO Rate
50% ★
37
Age
40
69"
Reach
70" ★
—
Activity
1.3y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
0 fights
BKFC Experience
6 fights ★
5'8"
Height
5'7"

Things to consider

Joey Gambino is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Tommy Strydom's experience.

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Joey Gambino on Tapology → · Tommy Strydom on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#7
Chris Perreault 50 ADV
Chris Perreault
0-0
VS
Joe Powers 50 ADV
Joe Powers
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Chris Perreault on Tapology → · Joe Powers on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Bantamweight
#8
Alexandra Ballou 45 ADV
USAlexandra Ballou
0-0 · age 34 · 67" reach
VS
Sophia Hayes 55 ADV
USSophia Hayes
0-0 · age 20 · 67" reach
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
45%
55%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
34
Age
20 ★
67"
Reach
67"
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
5'7"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Alexandra Ballou is 14 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Alexandra Ballou on Tapology → · Sophia Hayes on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#9
Brandon Bushaw 60 ADV
USBrandon Bushaw
2-1 · age 44
VS
Matt Denning 40 ADV
Matt Denning
0-0
Predictability
27 Weak signal
Model
60%
40%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-1
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
3.5y ago
Activity
— ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
0%
Opponent Quality
— ★
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Matt Denning is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Brandon Bushaw's experience.

Research elsewhere: Brandon Bushaw on Tapology → · Matt Denning on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#10
Isaiah Williams 50 ADV
USIsaiah Williams
0-0 · age 34 · 73" reach
VS
Nate Larocco 50 ADV
Nate Larocco
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Isaiah Williams on Tapology → · Nate Larocco on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 139 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
362
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=100)
59.0%
BKFC Record (n=106)
58.5%
Reach (n=132)
52.3%
Height (n=117)
52.1%
Age (n=161)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.