Every Edge, Every Card
Fights where our model sees value the sportsbooks are missing. Only picks we're confident enough to call.
What do Advantage, Edge, and Predictability mean? +
Advantage (0-100): our model's estimated win probability × 100. 67 means the model gives that fighter a 67% chance.
Edge: how far the model's probability is from the de-vigged market probability. +11 means the model thinks the fighter is 11 percentage points more likely to win than the market implies.
Predictability (0-100): how much to trust this specific pick. Blends data quality, signal strength, factor agreement. We filter below 40 so they don't pollute the board.
Top Edges
Edge × Predictability
Top-right corner = highest-value picks. Hover a dot for details; tap to open research.
💰 Sizing helper — apply your bankroll to each pick +
Kelly sizes each bet by the edge relative to the odds. We auto-scale by Predictability so less-trusted picks get smaller stakes. Max cap is 3% of bankroll per pick regardless of Kelly — responsible gambling →.
All Picks (3)
How to read this page
Advantage (ADV): our model's estimated win probability for that fighter, 0-100. 65 means the model gives them a 65% chance.
Edge: how far our model's probability is from the de-vigged market probability. 15pt means the model thinks the fighter is 15 percentage points more likely to win than the market prices them. Higher = bigger potential value.
Predictability: how trustworthy this specific pick is, 0-100. Combines data quality, signal strength, and factor agreement. 70+ = strong; below 40 filtered out.
⚠ warning: low-confidence edges — real data gap or market knows something. Don't chase big edges on thin data.