Every Edge, Every Card
PropsBot BKFC publishes free model picks for every upcoming Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship card, surfacing only the bouts where our 14-factor engine disagrees with the sportsbook line by enough to call an edge. Every pick is logged before the opening bell to a public accuracy ledger (currently 73.1% lifetime, as of July 2026). Picks include the fighter, model win probability, market-implied probability, and edge in percentage points. Live odds are aggregated every 30 minutes from xbet.ag, BestFightOdds, Polymarket, and Kalshi.
What do Advantage, Edge, and Predictability mean? +
Advantage (0-100): our model's estimated win probability × 100. 67 means the model gives that fighter a 67% chance.
Edge: how far the model's probability is from the de-vigged market probability. +11 means the model thinks the fighter is 11 percentage points more likely to win than the market implies.
Predictability (0-100): how much to trust this specific pick. Blends data quality, signal strength, factor agreement. We filter below 40 so they don't pollute the board.
All Picks (0)
No edges to publish yet — bkfc-fight-night-uruguay opens in 2 days.
Edges = model probability vs sportsbook line. Books usually post BKFC moneylines ~7-14 days before an event. The 30-min odds scraper auto-picks them up the moment they drop. In the meantime, our model's pre-market favorites per card are below — no value call yet, just who we'd favor on clean data.
How to read this page
Advantage (ADV): our model's estimated win probability for that fighter, 0-100. 65 means the model gives them a 65% chance.
Edge: how far our model's probability is from the de-vigged market probability. 15pt means the model thinks the fighter is 15 percentage points more likely to win than the market prices them. Higher = bigger potential value.
Predictability: how trustworthy this specific pick is, 0-100. Combines data quality, signal strength, and factor agreement. 70+ = strong; below 40 filtered out.
⚠ warning: low-confidence edges — real data gap or market knows something. Don't chase big edges on thin data.