Bet Responsibly
PropsBot is a research tool. It is not an endorsement to bet. Here's what every bettor should know.
Read this before you follow any pick
Our model has been right 59.8% of the time in backtest. That means 40% of the picks we recommend lose. Losing streaks of 5-7 in a row are statistically expected, not rare.
Treat every bet as paid entertainment. Only risk money you can lose without changing your life. Never chase losses. Never borrow to bet. If you find yourself doing either, you need to stop today.
Bankroll basics
A single bet should be 1-3% of your total gambling bankroll, never more. That cap is designed so you survive a bad run. Common sports-betting rules of thumb:
- Unit = 1% of bankroll. A 'one unit bet' is 1% of your total.
- Max exposure: 3 units per bet. Only on highest-confidence picks (Predictability 80+).
- Daily loss limit: 5 units. If you hit it, stop betting for the day.
- Session length: set a time cap before you start. Two hours max.
Kelly criterion (for the math-inclined)
Optimal bet size given an edge: f = (bp - q) / b where b = decimal odds - 1, p = true probability, q = 1 - p. Most professionals use quarter-Kelly to protect against model error. Full Kelly with an imperfect model like ours is a fast track to ruin.
Example: model gives fighter 67% (shrinkage-adjusted), moneyline is +150 (decimal 2.5). Full Kelly = (1.5 × 0.67 - 0.33) / 1.5 = 0.45, or 45% of bankroll. That's insane. Don't do that. Quarter Kelly = 11% — still too much. Our 1-3% per bet rule caps this automatically.
Warning signs
You have a problem if any of these apply:
- You bet with money earmarked for rent, groceries, bills.
- You hide your betting from family or partners.
- You chase losses by doubling up.
- You feel physically anxious when you can't bet.
- You've borrowed or stolen to bet.
- You've lied about how much you've lost.
If any of these feel familiar, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER. In the UK, GamCare: 0808 8020 133. Free, confidential, 24/7.
Our affiliate disclosure
PropsBot.AI is a free betting-intelligence tool. We do not operate a sportsbook and do not receive commissions from the books we link to (xbet.ag, BestFightOdds). Our odds data is scraped from publicly visible consensus sources for research purposes only. We are not sponsored by any fighter, promotion, or sportsbook. Recommendations reflect our model's output, not a financial relationship.