Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-sturgis

Friday, August 7, 2026 In 15 days BUFFALO CHIP
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 9 bouts Model 8:47 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Cruiserweight
#1
Bryant Acheson 45 ADV
USBryant Acheson
0-0 · age 41 · 78" reach
VS
Mike Jones 55 ADV
USMike Jones
0-0 · age 36 · 76" reach
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
45%
55%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
41
Age
36 ★
78"
Reach
76"
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Bryant Acheson on Tapology → · Mike Jones on Tapology →
Mike Jones

Camp News

+1 more
Co-Main · Heavyweight
#2
Bear Hill 64 ADV
USBear Hill
2-1 · age 32 · 74" reach
VS
Brady Meister 36 ADV
USBrady Meister
0-0 · age 29 · 77" reach
Predictability
30 Weak signal
Model
64%
36%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-1
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
32
Age
29 ★
74"
Reach
77" ★
1.3y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Brady Meister is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Bear Hill's experience.

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Brady Meister has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Bear Hill can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Bear Hill on Tapology → · Brady Meister on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Bantamweight
#3
Shyanna Bintliff 50 ADV
Shyanna Bintliff
0-0 · age 29 · 69" reach
VS
Crystal Pittman 50 ADV
USCrystal Pittman
3-4 · age 39 · 66" reach
Predictability
27 Weak signal
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
0-0
BKFC Record
3-4
29
Age
39
69"
Reach
66"
—
Activity
2.2y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
25%
0 fights
BKFC Experience
7 fights ★

Things to consider

Shyanna Bintliff is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Crystal Pittman's experience.

Crystal Pittman is 10 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Shyanna Bintliff has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Crystal Pittman can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Shyanna Bintliff on Tapology → · Crystal Pittman on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#4
Zeb Vincent 50 ADV
USZeb Vincent
0-0 · age 31 · 76" reach
VS
Pietie Coxen 50 ADV
Pietie Coxen
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Zeb Vincent on Tapology → · Pietie Coxen on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#5
Tyler Randall 42 ADV
USTyler Randall
4-4 · age 31 · 66" reach
VS
Joshua Oxendine 58 ADV
USJoshua Oxendine
1-0 · age 32 · 67" reach
Predictability
52 Marginal
Model
42%
58%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1482
ELO Rating
1481
L-W-L
Recent Form
L
4-4
BKFC Record
1-0 ★
31
Age
32
66"
Reach
67" ★
—
MMA Background
10-7 ★
1.5y ago
Activity
3mo ago ★
0/2 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
71%
Opponent Quality
64%
8 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
5'6"
Height
5'10" ★
Research elsewhere: Tyler Randall on Tapology → · Joshua Oxendine on Tapology →
Main Card · Cruiserweight
#6
Erick Lozano 54 ADV
USErick Lozano
3-6 · age 42 · 71" reach
VS
Devon Schwan 46 ADV
USDevon Schwan
1-0 · age 43
Predictability
34 Weak signal
Model
54%
46%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1475
ELO Rating
1481
L-L-W
Recent Form
L
3-6
BKFC Record
1-0 ★
42
Age
43
3mo ago
Activity
2mo ago
0/2 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
80%
Opponent Quality
52%
9 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
5'10"
Height
6'2" ★
Research elsewhere: Erick Lozano on Tapology → · Devon Schwan on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#7
42 ADV
USArt Driscoll
0-3 · age 41 · 72" reach
VS
Justin Walters 58 ADV
USJustin Walters
0-2 · 71" reach
Predictability
38 Marginal
Model
42%
58%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1481
ELO Rating
1459
L
Recent Form
L-L
0-3
BKFC Record
0-2
72"
Reach
71"
1.5y ago
Activity
3mo ago ★
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0/2 cuts
13%
Opponent Quality
39% ★
3 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
Research elsewhere: Art Driscoll on Tapology → · Justin Walters on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#8
Jason Simon 50 ADV
Jason Simon
0-0
VS
Jason Sanderson 50 ADV
Jason Sanderson
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Jason Simon on Tapology → · Jason Sanderson on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#9
Traevon Kroger 50 ADV
USTraevon Kroger
0-0 · age 26 · 75" reach
VS
Kb Dubeau-Staby 50 ADV
Kb Dubeau-Staby
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Traevon Kroger on Tapology → · Kb Dubeau-Staby on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 139 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
362
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=100)
59.0%
BKFC Record (n=106)
58.5%
Reach (n=132)
52.3%
Height (n=117)
52.1%
Age (n=161)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.