Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.
5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.
3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.
Brady Meister has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Bear Hill can force infighting.
Crystal Pittman is 10 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.
Shyanna Bintliff has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Crystal Pittman can force infighting.
Pietie Coxen is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Zeb Vincent's experience.
Alonzo Martinez is 11 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.
Zeb Vincent has a 6" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Alonzo Martinez can force infighting.
Kb Dubeau is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Traevon Kroger's experience.
The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.
Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):
Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.
