Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-newcastle-garside-vs-taylor

Friday, July 31, 2026 In 8 days WALKER ACTIVITY DOME
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 11 bouts Model 8:47 AM ET Odds 7:27 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Bantamweight Title Fight
#1
Lewis Garside 65 ADV
GBLewis Garside
3-0 · age 35 · 67" reach
VS
Bradley Taylor 35 ADV
GBBradley Taylor
0-0 · age 26 · 69" reach
Predictability
28 Weak signal
Model
65%
35%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
3-0
BKFC Record
0-0
35
Age
26 ★
67"
Reach
69" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
5'5"
Height
5'9" ★

Things to consider

Bradley Taylor is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Lewis Garside's experience.

Lewis Garside is 9 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Lewis Garside on Tapology → · Bradley Taylor on Tapology →
Co-Main · Lightweight
#2
Lewis Keen 63 ADV
GBLewis Keen
5-1 · age 27 · 70" reach
VS
James Lilley 37 ADV
GBJames Lilley
10-3 · age 39 · 71" reach
Predictability
68 Solid
Model
63%
37%
Model and market agree closely.
High confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1519
ELO Rating
1499
W
Recent Form
L-W
5-1
BKFC Record
10-3
—
KO Rate
10%
27
Age
39
70"
Reach
71" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
2.3y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
55%
Opponent Quality
78% ★
6 fights
BKFC Experience
13 fights ★
5'9"
Height
5'10" ★

Things to consider

James Lilley is 12 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Lewis Keen on Tapology → · James Lilley on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#3
Paul Cook 53 ADV
GBPaul Cook
3-1 · age 38 · 70" reach
VS
Liam Hutchinson 47 ADV
GBLiam Hutchinson
2-1 · age 35 · 75" reach
Predictability
43 Marginal
Model
53%
47%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1522
ELO Rating
1481
W
Recent Form
L
3-1
BKFC Record
2-1
38
Age
35 ★
70"
Reach
75" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
1.5y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
48%
Opponent Quality
88% ★
4 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
5'10"
Height
6'0" ★

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Liam Hutchinson has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Paul Cook can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Paul Cook on Tapology → · Liam Hutchinson on Tapology →
Main Card · Heavyweight
#4
James Walker 74 ADV
GBJames Walker
2-0 · age 38 · 81" reach
VS
Barry Boyle 26 ADV
GBBarry Boyle
0-0
Predictability
42 Marginal
Model
74%
26%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-0
BKFC Record
0-0
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
2 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Barry Boyle is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor James Walker's experience.

Research elsewhere: James Walker on Tapology → · Barry Boyle on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#5
37 ADV
GBJohn Ferguson
1-5 · age 38
VS
Mikey Nolan 63 ADV
GBMikey Nolan
0-0
Predictability
36 Marginal
Model
37%
63%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
1-5
BKFC Record
0-0 ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
67%
Opponent Quality
—
6 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Mikey Nolan is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor John Ferguson's experience.

Research elsewhere: John Ferguson on Tapology → · Mikey Nolan on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#6
Harrison Cave 53 ADV
GBHarrison Cave
0-0
VS
Danny Moir 47 ADV
GBDanny Moir
3-1 · age 33 · 78" reach
Predictability
14 Weak signal
Model
53%
47%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
L
0-0
BKFC Record
3-1 ★
—
Activity
1.3y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
0 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights ★

Things to consider

Harrison Cave is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Danny Moir's experience.

Research elsewhere: Harrison Cave on Tapology → · Danny Moir on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#7
Kj Metcalfe 50 ADV
GBKj Metcalfe
0-0
VS
Doalty Torrance 50 ADV
GBDoalty Torrance
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Kj Metcalfe on Tapology → · Doalty Torrance on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#8
Cory Chapman 50 ADV
GBCory Chapman
0-0
VS
Jack Blair 50 ADV
GBJack Blair
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Cory Chapman on Tapology → · Jack Blair on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#9
Kyle Redfearn 50 ADV
GBKyle Redfearn
0-0 · age 35 · 72" reach
VS
Declan Mercer 50 ADV
GBDeclan Mercer
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Kyle Redfearn on Tapology → · Declan Mercer on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
#10
Sandra Rees 50 ADV
Sandra Rees
0-0
VS
Sally Macdonald 50 ADV
GBSally Macdonald
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Sandra Rees on Tapology → · Sally Macdonald on Tapology →
Main Card · Heavyweight
#11
Chris Burton 50 ADV
GBChris Burton
0-0
VS
Daniel Curtin 50 ADV
GBDaniel Curtin
0-0 · age 35 · 73" reach
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Chris Burton on Tapology → · Daniel Curtin on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 139 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
362
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=100)
59.0%
BKFC Record (n=106)
58.5%
Reach (n=132)
52.3%
Height (n=117)
52.1%
Age (n=161)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.