Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-clearwater-4

Thursday, October 22, 2026 In 41 days OCC ROAD HOUSE
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 10 bouts Model 10:58 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Bantamweight
#1
Royal Ryan Reber 58 ADV
USRoyal Ryan Reber
8-2 · age 38 · 70" reach
VS
Justin Street 42 ADV
USJustin Street
4-2 · age 33 · 67" reach
Predictability
72 Solid
Model
58%
42%
Model and market agree closely.
High confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1519
ELO Rating
1539
W
Recent Form
W-W
8-2
BKFC Record
4-2
38
Age
33 ★
70"
Reach
67"
5mo ago
Activity
1.5y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
58%
Opponent Quality
40%
10 fights
BKFC Experience
6 fights
5'9"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Royal Ryan Reber has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Justin Street can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Royal Ryan Reber on Tapology → · Justin Street on Tapology →
Co-Main · Light Heavyweight
#2
Jared Warren 50 ADV
USJared Warren
0-0 · age 42 · 76" reach
VS
Thomas Angeloff 50 ADV
Thomas Angeloff
0-0 · age 43
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
42
Age
43
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Jared Warren on Tapology → · Thomas Angeloff on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#3
Michael Larrimore 50 ADV
USMichael Larrimore
3-2 · age 28 · 70" reach
VS
Nate Morrow 50 ADV
USNate Morrow
1-0 · age 31
Predictability
30 Weak signal
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
3-2
BKFC Record
1-0 ★
28
Age
31
5 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Michael Larrimore on Tapology → · Nate Morrow on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#4
Mike Heckert 66 ADV
USMike Heckert
2-1 · age 31 · 74" reach
VS
34 ADV
Rickie McConnico
0-1
Predictability
46 Marginal
Model
66%
34%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1541
ELO Rating
1481
W-W
Recent Form
L
2-1
BKFC Record
0-1
50%
KO Rate
—
5mo ago
Activity
5mo ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
11%
Opponent Quality
83% ★
3 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
Research elsewhere: Mike Heckert on Tapology → · Rickie McConnico on Tapology →
Main Card · Strawweight
#5
Crystal van Wyk 64 ADV
ZACrystal van Wyk
2-3 · age 38 · 63" reach
VS
Noelia Vasallo 36 ADV
Noelia Vasallo
0-0
Predictability
31 Weak signal
Model
64%
36%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-3
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
2.6y ago
Activity
— ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
5 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Noelia Vasallo is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Crystal van Wyk's experience.

Research elsewhere: Crystal van Wyk on Tapology → · Noelia Vasallo on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#6
Tony Murphy 72 ADV
USTony Murphy
3-0 · age 34
VS
Brandon Conley 28 ADV
USBrandon Conley
2-1 · age 37 · 71" reach
Predictability
53 Marginal
Model
72%
28%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
3-0
BKFC Record
2-1
34
Age
37
3 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
6'0"
Height
5'9"

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Tony Murphy on Tapology → · Brandon Conley on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#7
Tyler Baker 50 ADV
Tyler Baker
0-0
VS
Yari Kaganovsky 50 ADV
Yari Kaganovsky
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Tyler Baker on Tapology → · Yari Kaganovsky on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#8
Sam Delao 50 ADV
Sam Delao
0-0
VS
Chris Keirn 50 ADV
Chris Keirn
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Sam Delao on Tapology → · Chris Keirn on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#9
Jason DiNunzio 36 ADV
USJason DiNunzio
0-2 · age 30 · 69" reach
VS
Gabriel Freyre 64 ADV
USGabriel Freyre
2-2 · age 34 · 72" reach
Predictability
53 Marginal
Model
36%
64%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-2
BKFC Record
2-2 ★
30
Age
34
69"
Reach
72" ★
2 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights
5'9"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Gabriel Freyre has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Jason DiNunzio can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Jason DiNunzio on Tapology → · Gabriel Freyre on Tapology →
Main Card ·
#10
Chachi Versace 50 ADV
USChachi Versace
0-2 · age 38 · 67" reach
VS
Angelo Trujillo 50 ADV
USAngelo Trujillo
0-2 · age 28
Predictability
28 Weak signal
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
L
0-2
BKFC Record
0-2
38
Age
28 ★
—
Activity
5mo ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
25%
2 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
5'6"
Height
5'7" ★

Things to consider

Chachi Versace is 10 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Chachi Versace on Tapology → · Angelo Trujillo on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.