Fight Research

bkfc-fight-night-bethlehem

Thursday, October 8, 2026 In 27 days WIND CREEK EVENT CENTER
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 10 bouts Model 10:58 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Welterweight
#1
Gregoris Cisneros 48 ADV
Gregoris Cisneros
5-2 · age 30 · 70" reach
VS
Ryan Petersen 52 ADV
USRyan Petersen
3-2 · age 40
Predictability
26 Weak signal
Model
48%
52%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
5-2
BKFC Record
3-2
30
Age
40
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
7 fights
BKFC Experience
5 fights
5'11"
Height
5'9"

Things to consider

Ryan Petersen is 10 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Gregoris Cisneros on Tapology → · Ryan Petersen on Tapology →
Gregoris Cisneros

Camp News

Ryan Petersen

Camp News

Co-Main · Welterweight
#2
Christian Torres 30 ADV
USChristian Torres
2-6 · age 39 · 72" reach
VS
Brett Shoenfelt 70 ADV
USBrett Shoenfelt
0-0 · age 37 · 71" reach
Predictability
45 Marginal
Model
30%
70%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L-L
Recent Form
— ★
2-6
BKFC Record
0-0 ★
39
Age
37 ★
72"
Reach
71"
3.4y ago
Activity
— ★
1/2 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts ★
67%
Opponent Quality
—
8 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights
5'7"
Height
5'10" ★

Things to consider

Brett Shoenfelt is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Christian Torres's experience.

Research elsewhere: Christian Torres on Tapology → · Brett Shoenfelt on Tapology →
Main Card · Cruiserweight
#3
Lex Ludlow 75 ADV
USLex Ludlow
4-0 · age 32
VS
Brock Walker 25 ADV
USBrock Walker
1-2 · age 40 · 69" reach
Predictability
51 Marginal
Model
75%
25%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
4-0
BKFC Record
1-2
32
Age
40
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
17%
Opponent Quality
— ★
4 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights

Things to consider

Brock Walker is 8 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Lex Ludlow on Tapology → · Brock Walker on Tapology →
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
#4
Mike Liberto 50 ADV
Mike Liberto
0-0
VS
Jojo Schillizzi 50 ADV
Jojo Schillizzi
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Mike Liberto on Tapology → · Jojo Schillizzi on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#5
Jay Haas 50 ADV
Jay Haas
0-0
VS
Antonio Castillo Jr 50 ADV
USAntonio Castillo Jr
0-0 · age 39 · 70" reach
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Jay Haas on Tapology → · Antonio Castillo Jr on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
#6
Taylor Dagner 77 ADV
USTaylor Dagner
0-0 · age 26 · 68" reach
VS
Marisol Ruelas 23 ADV
USMarisol Ruelas
0-2
Predictability
44 Marginal
Model
77%
23%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-2
0 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
5'9"
Height
5'5"

Things to consider

Taylor Dagner is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Marisol Ruelas's experience.

Research elsewhere: Taylor Dagner on Tapology → · Marisol Ruelas on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#7
Travis Thompson 49 ADV
USTravis Thompson
6-8 · age 43 · 66" reach
VS
Nick Burgos 51 ADV
USNick Burgos
0-2 · age 46 · 68" reach
Predictability
45 Marginal
Model
49%
51%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L-W-L
Recent Form
— ★
6-8
BKFC Record
0-2
17%
KO Rate
— ★
43
Age
46
66"
Reach
68" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0/2 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
25%
Opponent Quality
— ★
14 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
5'6"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Travis Thompson on Tapology → · Nick Burgos on Tapology →
Main Card · Heavyweight
#8
Brian Newman 67 ADV
Brian Newman
0-0
VS
Mark Culp 33 ADV
USMark Culp
0-1 · age 34
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
67%
33%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-1
0 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights

Things to consider

Brian Newman is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Mark Culp's experience.

Research elsewhere: Brian Newman on Tapology → · Mark Culp on Tapology →
Main Card · Ironweight
#9
Lewis Rumsey 40 ADV
USLewis Rumsey
2-5 · age 36 · 76" reach
VS
Maurice Morris 60 ADV
Maurice Morris
0-0
Predictability
38 Marginal
Model
40%
60%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
2-5
BKFC Record
0-0 ★
2.3y ago
Activity
— ★
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
100%
Opponent Quality
—
7 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Maurice Morris is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Lewis Rumsey's experience.

Research elsewhere: Lewis Rumsey on Tapology → · Maurice Morris on Tapology →
Main Card · Heavyweight
#10
Nathaniel James 50 ADV
Nathaniel James
0-0
VS
Marc Worthington 50 ADV
Marc Worthington
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Nathaniel James on Tapology → · Marc Worthington on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.