5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.
Josh Kuhne has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Mick Whitehead can force infighting.
Ryan Winnett is 12 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.
Patrick Tolone has a 7" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Fetongi Tuinauvai can force infighting.
Darcy Braine has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Ritchie Fa'oso can force infighting.
The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.
Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):
Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.
