Fight Research

bkfc-95-newark

Friday, October 16, 2026 In 35 days THE PRUDENTIAL CENTER
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 7 bouts Model 10:58 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Bantamweight Title Fight
#1
Jamel Herring 53 ADV
USJamel Herring
2-0 · age 40 · 70" reach
VS
John Dodson 47 ADV
USJohn Dodson
4-0 · age 41 · 66" reach
Predictability
33 Weak signal
Model
53%
47%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
2-0
BKFC Record
4-0 ★
40
Age
41
24-5 (12 KOs)
Pro Boxing
—
70"
Reach
66"
—
Activity
3.6y ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
91% ★
2 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights

Things to consider

Jamel Herring has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless John Dodson can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Jamel Herring on Tapology → · John Dodson on Tapology →
Jamel Herring

Camp News

+5 more
Main Card · Lightweight
#2
50 ADV
Tony 'Loco' Soto
0-0
VS
Anthony Pike 50 ADV
Anthony Pike
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Tony 'Loco' Soto on Tapology → · Anthony Pike on Tapology →
Main Card · Women's Flyweight
#3
Gabrielle Roman 38 ADV
USGabrielle Roman
2-3 · age 34 · 64" reach
VS
62 ADV
Brooke Evans
0-0
Predictability
25 Weak signal
Model
38%
62%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
2-3
BKFC Record
0-0
2.5y ago
Activity
— ★
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
67%
Opponent Quality
—
5 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Brooke Evans is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Gabrielle Roman's experience.

Research elsewhere: Gabrielle Roman on Tapology → · Brooke Evans on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#4
Dalvin Blair 65 ADV
USDalvin Blair
2-1 · age 35 · 71" reach
VS
Paris Boyd 35 ADV
USParis Boyd
0-0 · age 38 · 74" reach
Predictability
32 Weak signal
Model
65%
35%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-1
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
35
Age
38
71"
Reach
74" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
33%
Opponent Quality
— ★
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Paris Boyd is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Dalvin Blair's experience.

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Paris Boyd has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Dalvin Blair can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Dalvin Blair on Tapology → · Paris Boyd on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#5
Justin Clarke 50 ADV
USJustin Clarke
0-0 · age 35 · 71" reach
VS
50 ADV
Dom Carey
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Justin Clarke on Tapology → · Dom Carey on Tapology →
Main Card ·
#6
Santo Curatolo 31 ADV
Santo Curatolo
0-0
VS
Anthony Yost 69 ADV
USAnthony Yost
2-2 · age 32 · 66" reach
Predictability
34 Weak signal
Model
31%
69%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
0-0
BKFC Record
2-2
—
Activity
5mo ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
0%
0 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights ★

Things to consider

Santo Curatolo is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Anthony Yost's experience.

Research elsewhere: Santo Curatolo on Tapology → · Anthony Yost on Tapology →
Main Card · Heavyweight
#7
Gzim Selmani 67 ADV
Gzim Selmani
1-0 · age 32 · 80" reach
VS
Brad Lee 33 ADV
Brad Lee
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
67%
33%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1-0
BKFC Record
0-0
1 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Brad Lee is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Gzim Selmani's experience.

Research elsewhere: Gzim Selmani on Tapology → · Brad Lee on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.