Fight Research

bkfc-94-manchester

Friday, September 25, 2026 In 14 days AO Arena · United Kingdom
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 13 bouts Model 10:58 AM ET
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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Cruiserweight
#1
Darren Till 67 ADV
GBDarren Till
1-0 · age 33 · 75" reach
VS
Yoel Romero 33 ADV
Yoel Romero
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
67%
33%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1-0
BKFC Record
0-0
1 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Yoel Romero is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Darren Till's experience.

Research elsewhere: Darren Till on Tapology → · Yoel Romero on Tapology →
Darren Till

Camp News

+5 more
Yoel Romero

Camp News

+5 more
Main Card · Middleweight Title Fight
#2
David Mundell 37 ADV
USDavid Mundell
10-2 · age 35
VS
Jack Cullen 63 ADV
GBJack Cullen
2-0 · age 32 · 78" reach
Predictability
44 Marginal
Model
37%
63%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
10-2
BKFC Record
2-0
—
KO Rate
50% ★
35
Age
32 ★
—
Activity
1.5y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
12 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: David Mundell on Tapology → · Jack Cullen on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight Title Fight
#3
Gaz Corran 73 ADV
GBGaz Corran
1-0 · age 45 · 71" reach
VS
Mac Bygraves 27 ADV
GBMac Bygraves
3-0 · 74" reach
Predictability
47 Marginal
Model
73%
27%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
1-0
BKFC Record
3-0 ★
100%
KO Rate
—
71"
Reach
74" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
75%
Opponent Quality
—
1 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
5'10"
Height
5'10"

Things to consider

Mac Bygraves has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Gaz Corran can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Gaz Corran on Tapology → · Mac Bygraves on Tapology →
Main Card · Cruiserweight Title Fight
#4
Karl Thompson 65 ADV
GBKarl Thompson
4-1 · age 37 · 73" reach
VS
Andy Thornton 35 ADV
GBAndy Thornton
1-0 · age 38 · 75" reach
Predictability
61 Solid
Model
65%
35%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
4-1
BKFC Record
1-0
37
Age
38
73"
Reach
75" ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
93%
Opponent Quality
—
5 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
6'0"
Height
5'11"
Research elsewhere: Karl Thompson on Tapology → · Andy Thornton on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#5
Joe Lister 68 ADV
GBJoe Lister
2-1 · age 21
VS
Harrison Cave 32 ADV
GBHarrison Cave
0-0
Predictability
38 Marginal
Model
68%
32%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
2-1
BKFC Record
0-0
50%
KO Rate
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
3 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Harrison Cave is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Joe Lister's experience.

Research elsewhere: Joe Lister on Tapology → · Harrison Cave on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#6
Mikey Henderson 72 ADV
GBMikey Henderson
3-0 · age 31 · 77" reach
VS
Matthew Wiwczaryk 28 ADV
GBMatthew Wiwczaryk
3-1 · age 27 · 70" reach
Predictability
68 Solid
Model
72%
28%
Model and market agree closely.
Medium confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
3-0
BKFC Record
3-1
31
Age
27
77"
Reach
70"
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
68%
Opponent Quality
—
3 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights
6'0"
Height
5'10"

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Mikey Henderson has a 7" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Matthew Wiwczaryk can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Mikey Henderson on Tapology → · Matthew Wiwczaryk on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#7
Stew Martin 52 ADV
GBStew Martin
1-1 · age 40 · 68" reach
VS
Curtis Davies 48 ADV
Curtis Davies
0-0
Predictability
22 Weak signal
Model
52%
48%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
L
Recent Form
— ★
1-1
BKFC Record
0-0
42d ago
Activity
—
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
86%
Opponent Quality
—
2 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Curtis Davies is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Stew Martin's experience.

Research elsewhere: Stew Martin on Tapology → · Curtis Davies on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#8
Ste Wallwork 27 ADV
Ste Wallwork
0-0
VS
Leigh Cohoon 73 ADV
GBLeigh Cohoon
3-0 · age 41 · 74" reach
Predictability
41 Marginal
Model
27%
73%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
3-0 ★
—
KO Rate
67% ★
—
Activity
3mo ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
0 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights ★

Things to consider

Ste Wallwork is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Leigh Cohoon's experience.

Research elsewhere: Ste Wallwork on Tapology → · Leigh Cohoon on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#9
Luke Vaughan 31 ADV
Luke Vaughan
0-0
VS
Bartlomiej Krol 69 ADV
PLBartlomiej Krol
5-2 · age 38
Predictability
48 Marginal
Model
31%
69%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
0-0
BKFC Record
5-2 ★
—
Activity
1.5y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
0%
0 fights
BKFC Experience
7 fights ★

Things to consider

Luke Vaughan is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Bartlomiej Krol's experience.

Research elsewhere: Luke Vaughan on Tapology → · Bartlomiej Krol on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#10
Liam Dooley 77 ADV
GBLiam Dooley
1-1 · age 31
VS
Tyrone Hamer 23 ADV
Tyrone Hamer
0-0
Predictability
44 Marginal
Model
77%
23%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
1-1
BKFC Record
0-0
100%
KO Rate
—
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
2 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Tyrone Hamer is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Liam Dooley's experience.

Research elsewhere: Liam Dooley on Tapology → · Tyrone Hamer on Tapology →
Main Card · Middleweight
#12
Joe Lister 38 ADV
GBJoe Lister
2-1 · age 21
VS
Harry Bray 62 ADV
Harry Bray
1-0
Predictability
40 Marginal
Model
38%
62%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1522
ELO Rating
1522
W
Recent Form
W
2-1
BKFC Record
1-0
50%
KO Rate
100% ★
1.6y ago
Activity
42d ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
57%
Opponent Quality
22%
3 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights

Things to consider

Harry Bray has finished 100% of BKFC wins by KO — elite finish rate. Going to the cards neutralizes this edge.

Research elsewhere: Joe Lister on Tapology → · Harry Bray on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#13
Luke Bassnett 50 ADV
Luke Bassnett
0-0
VS
Darren Willans 50 ADV
Darren Willans
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
50%
50%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Luke Bassnett on Tapology → · Darren Willans on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.