Fight Research

bkfc-93-hollywood

Thursday, September 10, 2026 THE HARD ROCK LIVE HOLLYWOOD
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 12 bouts Avg edge 10.4pt Model 10:58 AM ET Odds 9:44 AM ET
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Where the data disagrees with the market

#1
Main Card · Bantamweight
Jancarlos Rivera
Advantage 66 · Market 44%
+22.0PT
Predictability 37
#2
Main Card · Ironweight
Caleb Joseph Avila
Advantage 54 · Market 35%
+19.0PT
Predictability 22
#3
Main Card ·
Tyler Randall
Advantage 30 · Market 17%
+12.1PT
Predictability 77

Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.

Every bout on the card

Main Event · Heavyweight
#1
Leonardo Perdomo 63 ADV
Leonardo Perdomo
11-0 · age 34 · 73" reach
VS
Anthony Garrett 37 ADV
USAnthony Garrett
3-1 · age 36 · 84" reach
Predictability
42 Marginal
Model
63%
37%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W-W
Recent Form
—
11-0
BKFC Record
3-1
18%
KO Rate
— ★
34
Age
36
73"
Reach
84" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
11 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights

Things to consider

Anthony Garrett has a 11" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Leonardo Perdomo can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Leonardo Perdomo on Tapology → · Anthony Garrett on Tapology →
Leonardo Perdomo

Camp News

Main Card · Bantamweight
#2
Gee Perez 43 ADV
USGee Perez
7-2 · age 37 · 76" reach
VS
Andrew Strode 57 ADV
USAndrew Strode
4-0 · age 29 · 74" reach
Predictability
38 Marginal
Model
43%
57%
Market
43%+115
-15957%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1522
ELO Rating
1519
W
Recent Form
W
7-2
BKFC Record
4-0 ★
14%
KO Rate
— ★
37
Age
29 ★
76"
Reach
74"
3.4y ago
Activity
1.6y ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
50%
Opponent Quality
64% ★
9 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights

Things to consider

Gee Perez is 8 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Gee Perez on Tapology → · Andrew Strode on Tapology →
Main Card · Ironweight
#3
Esteban Rodriguez 75 ADV
USEsteban Rodriguez
6-1 · age 34 · 81" reach
VS
Stephen 'Tomahawk' Townsel 25 ADV
USStephen 'Tomahawk' Townsel
6-5 · age 46
Predictability
52 Marginal
Model
75%
25%
Market
68%-275
+18832%
⚠️ Model likes Esteban Rodriguez +7.0 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W-W
Recent Form
—
6-1
BKFC Record
6-5
83%
KO Rate
—
34
Age
46
1-4
MMA Background
—
5mo ago
Activity
—
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
7 fights
BKFC Experience
11 fights ★

Things to consider

Stephen 'Tomahawk' Townsel is 12 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Esteban Rodriguez on Tapology → · Stephen 'Tomahawk' Townsel on Tapology →
Esteban Rodriguez

Camp News

+5 more
Main Card ·
#4
Chris Garcia 70 ADV
USChris Garcia
6-1 · age 26 · 71" reach
VS
Tyler Randall 30 ADV
USTyler Randall
4-4 · age 31 · 66" reach
Predictability
77 Strong
Model
70%
30%
Market
83%-715
+44017%
★ Model likes Tyler Randall +12.1 pts vs market
High confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1521
ELO Rating
1482
L-W-W
Recent Form
L-W-L
6-1
BKFC Record
4-4
17%
KO Rate
— ★
26
Age
31
71"
Reach
66"
1.5y ago
Activity
1.6y ago
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0/2 cuts
30%
Opponent Quality
64% ★
7 fights
BKFC Experience
8 fights
5'8"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Chris Garcia has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Tyler Randall can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Chris Garcia on Tapology → · Tyler Randall on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#5
34 ADV
Matt 'Rambo' Russo
0-0
VS
Jancarlos Rivera 66 ADV
USJancarlos Rivera
3-0 · age 28 · 62" reach
Predictability
37 Marginal
Model
34%
66%
Market
56%-157
+11244%
⚠️ Model likes Jancarlos Rivera +22.0 pts vs market
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
3-0 ★
0 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights ★

Things to consider

Matt 'Rambo' Russo is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Jancarlos Rivera's experience.

Model and market disagree by 22.0pt toward Jancarlos Rivera — but confidence is low and the market may know something the data does not. Lines move for reasons: injuries, weight miss, camp news. Check BKFC weigh-in results before betting.

Research elsewhere: Matt 'Rambo' Russo on Tapology → · Jancarlos Rivera on Tapology →
Main Card · Ironweight
#6
Chino Blume 46 ADV
Chino Blume
0-0
VS
Caleb Joseph Avila 54 ADV
USCaleb Joseph Avila
1-2 · age 24 · 73" reach
Predictability
22 Weak signal
Model
46%
54%
Market
65%-235
+16335%
⚠️ Model likes Caleb Joseph Avila +19.0 pts vs market
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
—
Recent Form
W ★
0-0
BKFC Record
1-2
—
KO Rate
100% ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
—
Opponent Quality
0%
0 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights ★

Things to consider

Chino Blume is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Caleb Joseph Avila's experience.

Model and market disagree by 19.0pt toward Caleb Joseph Avila — but confidence is low and the market may know something the data does not. Lines move for reasons: injuries, weight miss, camp news. Check BKFC weigh-in results before betting.

Research elsewhere: Chino Blume on Tapology → · Caleb Joseph Avila on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#7
Murat Kazgan 62 ADV
Murat Kazgan
1-1 · age 40
VS
James Rodriguez 38 ADV
USJames Rodriguez
1-1 · age 37 · 72" reach
Predictability
35 Marginal
Model
62%
38%
Market
57%-159
+11543%
⚠️ Model likes Murat Kazgan +5.5 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
1-1
BKFC Record
1-1
100%
KO Rate
—
40
Age
37 ★
3.6y ago
Activity
— ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
25%
Opponent Quality
— ★
2 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights

Things to consider

3-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Murat Kazgan on Tapology → · James Rodriguez on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#8
Ernesto Suarez 69 ADV
Ernesto Suarez
2-0 · age 31 · 66" reach
VS
Ronny Hauser 31 ADV
USRonny Hauser
1-1 · age 32 · 62" reach
Predictability
52 Marginal
Model
69%
31%
Market
63%-215
+15037%
⚠️ Model likes Ernesto Suarez +6.3 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
2-0
BKFC Record
1-1
31
Age
32
66"
Reach
62"
2 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
5'7"
Height
5'6"

Things to consider

Ernesto Suarez has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Ronny Hauser can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Ernesto Suarez on Tapology → · Ronny Hauser on Tapology →
Main Card · Lightweight
#9
Adyam Devillafuerte 58 ADV
USAdyam Devillafuerte
0-0 · age 44 · 70" reach
VS
Miguel Hinojosa 42 ADV
Miguel Hinojosa
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
58%
42%
Market
68%-275
+18832%
⚠️ Model likes Miguel Hinojosa +9.8 pts vs market
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-0
0 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Adyam Devillafuerte on Tapology → · Miguel Hinojosa on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#10
Eduardo Suarez 33 ADV
Eduardo Suarez
0-1 · age 31 · 69" reach
VS
Jose Davila 67 ADV
Jose Davila
0-0
Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier
Model
33%
67%
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-1
BKFC Record
0-0 ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
0 fights

Things to consider

Jose Davila is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Eduardo Suarez's experience.

Research elsewhere: Eduardo Suarez on Tapology → · Jose Davila on Tapology →
Main Card · Featherweight
#11
Bryan Duran 75 ADV
Bryan Duran
8-1 · age 30
VS
Felony Charles Bennett 25 ADV
USFelony Charles Bennett
1-4 · age 46
Predictability
46 Marginal
Model
75%
25%
Market
87%-1115
+60013%
⚠️ Model likes Felony Charles Bennett +11.6 pts vs market
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
W
Recent Form
—
8-1
BKFC Record
1-4
13%
KO Rate
— ★
30
Age
46
2.6y ago
Activity
— ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
32%
Opponent Quality
— ★
9 fights
BKFC Experience
5 fights

Things to consider

Felony Charles Bennett is 16 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Bryan Duran on Tapology → · Felony Charles Bennett on Tapology →
Main Event · Heavyweight
#12
Leonardo Perdomo 49 ADV
Leonardo Perdomo
11-0 · age 34 · 73" reach
VS
Bear Hill 51 ADV
USBear Hill
3-1 · age 32 · 74" reach
Predictability
34 Weak signal
Model
49%
51%
Model and market agree closely.
Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1543
ELO Rating
1543
W-W
Recent Form
W-W
11-0
BKFC Record
3-1
18%
KO Rate
33% ★
34
Age
32
73"
Reach
74" ★
1.5y ago
Activity
35d ago ★
0 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
54%
Opponent Quality
67% ★
11 fights
BKFC Experience
4 fights
Research elsewhere: Leonardo Perdomo on Tapology → · Bear Hill on Tapology →
Leonardo Perdomo

Camp News

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 156 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
424
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=122)
58.2%
BKFC Record (n=132)
56.1%
Height (n=125)
52.0%
Reach (n=152)
52.0%
Age (n=175)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.