Fight Research

BKFC 90 Birmingham: Tierney vs. Franco

Saturday, May 30, 2026 In 43 days Utilita Arena Birmingham · Birmingham · United Kingdom

Model v0.1.0 · 59.8% hit rate 8 bouts Model 8:43 PM

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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Welterweight BKFC Welterweight Championship

30 ADV

🇬🇧Connor Tierney

0-1 · age 31 · 73" reach

70 ADV

🇬🇧Rico Franco

2-0 · age 33 · 69" reach

Predictability

44 Marginal

Model

30%

70%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1478

ELO Rating

1543 ★

Recent Form

W-W ★

0-1

BKFC Record

2-0 ★

—

KO Rate

100% ★

Age

73"

Reach

69"

3.1y ago

Activity

3.0y ago

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

100%

Opponent Quality

1 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

—

Height

United Kingdom

Home

United Kingdom

Things to consider

Connor Tierney has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Rico Franco can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Connor Tierney on Tapology → · Rico Franco on Tapology →

Co-Main · Cruiserweight BKFC Cruiserweight Championship

75 ADV

🇬🇧John Phillips

1-0 · 74" reach

25 ADV

Ryan Barrett

0-0

Predictability

39 Marginal

Model

75%

25%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1522

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

—

1-0

BKFC Record

0-0

100%

KO Rate

—

Reach

—

1.0y ago

Activity

—

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

Opponent Quality

— ★

1 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

United Kingdom

Home

—

Things to consider

Ryan Barrett is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor John Phillips's experience.

Research elsewhere: John Phillips on Tapology → · Ryan Barrett on Tapology →

Featured Bout · Bantamweight BKFC Bantamweight Championship

67 ADV

🇬🇧Jonno Chipchase

1-1 · age 35 · 73" reach

33 ADV

🇬🇧Brian Hyslop

0-0 · age 39 · 65" reach

Predictability

34 Weak signal

Model

67%

33%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1491

ELO Rating

—

L-W

Recent Form

—

1-1

BKFC Record

0-0

100%

KO Rate

—

Age

73"

Reach

65"

1.1y ago

Activity

—

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

17%

Opponent Quality

— ★

2 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

—

Height

United Kingdom

Home

United Kingdom

Things to consider

Brian Hyslop is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Jonno Chipchase's experience.

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Jonno Chipchase has a 8" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Brian Hyslop can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Jonno Chipchase on Tapology → · Brian Hyslop on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

41 ADV

Mike Wilkinson

0-0

59 ADV

🇬🇧Luke Brassfield

0-0 · age 38 · 72" reach

Predictability

33 Weak signal

Model

41%

59%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

—

Age

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

—

Height

—

Home

United Kingdom ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Mike Wilkinson on Tapology → · Luke Brassfield on Tapology →

Main Card · Lightweight

50 ADV

Nathan Leeson

0-0

50 ADV

Stevie Devenport

0-0

Predictability

18 Weak signal

Model

50%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Nathan Leeson on Tapology → · Stevie Devenport on Tapology →

Main Card · Middleweight

53 ADV

🇬🇧George Thorpe

1-0 · age 29 · 79" reach

47 ADV

🇬🇧Leigh Cohoon

2-0 · age 41 · 74" reach

Predictability

35 Marginal

Model

53%

47%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1522

ELO Rating

1543

Recent Form

W-W

1-0

BKFC Record

2-0 ★

100%

KO Rate

100%

Age

79"

Reach

74"

3.1y ago

Activity

1.1y ago ★

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

50%

Opponent Quality

33%

1 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

6'2"

Height

6'0"

United Kingdom

Home

United Kingdom

Things to consider

Leigh Cohoon is 12 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

George Thorpe has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Leigh Cohoon can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: George Thorpe on Tapology → · Leigh Cohoon on Tapology →

Main Card · Middleweight

59 ADV

🇬🇧Paul O'Sullivan

0-0 · age 39 · 70" reach

41 ADV

Paul Hilz

0-0

Predictability

33 Weak signal

Model

59%

41%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

—

Reach

—

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

United Kingdom

Home

—

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Paul O'Sullivan on Tapology → · Paul Hilz on Tapology →

Preliminary · Lightweight

55 ADV

🇬🇧Tommy Hawthorn

0-0 · age 30 · 72" reach

45 ADV

🇬🇧Will Smith

0-0 · age 36

Predictability

20 Weak signal

Model

55%

45%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

Reach

—

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

5'9"

Height

6'1" ★

United Kingdom

Home

United Kingdom

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Will Smith is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Tommy Hawthorn on Tapology → · Will Smith on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.8%

Model accuracy

on 127 historical picks

+9.8pp

Edge over 50/50

vs coin-flip baseline

325

Bouts backtested

point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)

18%

Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)

14%

BKFC KO rate / finishing ability

13%

Age curve (steep decline past 35)

12%

Reach advantage

10%

Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)

MMA-background depth

Activity / ring rust

Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)

Strength of schedule

BKFC experience (fight count)

Height advantage

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=90)

57.8%

BKFC Record (n=96)

57.3%

Reach (n=140)

52.1%

Height (n=93)

50.5%

Age (n=147)

49.0%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.8% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.