Fight Research

BKFC 89 Palm Desert: Herring vs. Maness

Saturday, May 23, 2026 Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert · United States

Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 12 bouts Avg edge 5.2pt Model 8:03 PM ET Odds 7:27 AM ET

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Where the data disagrees with the market

Co-Main · Light Heavyweight

Cody Vidal

Advantage 46 · Market 38%

+7.9PT

Predictability 51

Main Card · Welterweight

Eric Lopez

Advantage 24 · Market 16%

+7.6PT

Predictability 52

Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.

Every bout on the card

Main Event · Bantamweight BKFC Bantamweight Championship

43 ADV

USJamel Herring

1-0 · age 40 · 70" reach

57 ADV

USNate Maness

2-0 · age 34 · 72" reach

Predictability

40 Marginal

Model

43%

57%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1-0

BKFC Record

2-0 ★

Age

34 ★

24-5 (12 KOs)

Pro Boxing

—

70"

Reach

72" ★

—

MMA Background

16-3 ★

1 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

5'10"

Height

5'10"

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Jamel Herring is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Jamel Herring on Tapology → · Nate Maness on Tapology →

Jamel Herring

Camp News

Sports Illustrated 2026-05-23 Jamel Herring Becomes Two-Sport World Champion With BKFC 89 Title Win - Sports Illustrated
Fights Around The World 2026-05-23 BKFC 89 Palm Desert-Herring vs Larrimore Fight Results: Herring Becomes New BKFC Champ - Fights Around The World
readers.id 2026-05-23 Jamel Herring Challenges Michael Larrimore for BKFC Bantamweight Title - readers.id

+5 more

Koran Manado 2026-05-23 Jamel Herring Challenges Michael Larrimore for BKFC Bantamweight Title - Koran Manado
HarianBasis.co 2026-05-23 Jamel Herring Faces Michael Larrimore in BKFC 89 Title Fight - HarianBasis.co
Fights Around The World 2026-05-22 BKFC 89 Palm Desert Jamel Herring vs Michael Larrimore: Weigh-In Results & Betting Odds - Fights Around The World
MyMMANews 2026-05-22 BKFC 89 results – Jamel “Semper Fi” Herring wins bantamweight title - MyMMANews
New York Amsterdam News 2026-05-21 Former boxing champ Jamel Herring to challenge for BKFC title - New York Amsterdam News

Nate Maness

Camp News

BVM Sports 2026-04-24 BKFC 89 Breakdown: Herring vs. Maness Bantamweight Title Clash - BVM Sports

Co-Main · Light Heavyweight

46 ADV

USCody Vidal

3-1 · age 37 · 74" reach

54 ADV

USJomi Escoboza

10-2 · age 35 · 76" reach

Predictability

51 Marginal

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1505

ELO Rating

1477

W-L

Recent Form

3-1

BKFC Record

10-2 ★

Age

74"

Reach

76" ★

3-1

MMA Background

7-4-1

1d ago

Activity

1d ago

1/1 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

74%

Opponent Quality

75%

4 fights

BKFC Experience

12 fights ★

5'10"

Height

6'3" ★

United States

Home

United States

Research elsewhere: Cody Vidal on Tapology → · Jomi Escoboza on Tapology →

Featured Bout · Heavyweight

42 ADV

USChase Gormley

1-1 · age 42 · 78" reach

58 ADV

BRLevi Costa

2-3 · age 40

Predictability

35 Marginal

Model

42%

58%

Market

42%+120

-16758%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

Recent Form

— ★

1-1

BKFC Record

2-3

Age

40 ★

1.3y ago

Activity

—

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

70%

Opponent Quality

—

2 fights

BKFC Experience

5 fights ★

United States

Home

Brazil

Research elsewhere: Chase Gormley on Tapology → · Levi Costa on Tapology →

Main Card · Heavyweight

42 ADV

Eric Soto

0-0

58 ADV

USJuan Figuerva

1-1 · age 36 · 72" reach

Predictability

32 Weak signal

Model

42%

58%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

1-1

0 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Eric Soto is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Juan Figuerva's experience.

Research elsewhere: Eric Soto on Tapology → · Juan Figuerva on Tapology →

Main Card · Bantamweight

46 ADV

USDavid Diaz

3-1 · age 36 · 68" reach

54 ADV

USAnthony Sanchez

1-3 · age 34 · 67" reach

Predictability

34 Weak signal

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1479

ELO Rating

1484

Recent Form

W-L-L ★

3-1

BKFC Record

1-3

Age

34 ★

68"

Reach

67"

1d ago

Activity

1d ago

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0/2 cuts

25%

Opponent Quality

60% ★

4 fights

BKFC Experience

4 fights

United States

Home

United States

Research elsewhere: David Diaz on Tapology → · Anthony Sanchez on Tapology →

Main Card · Bantamweight

30 ADV

USDaniel Alvarez

2-2 · age 36 · 68" reach

70 ADV

USJared Lennon

1-1 · age 30 · 73" reach

Predictability

65 Solid

Model

30%

70%

Model and market agree closely.

Medium confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1497

ELO Rating

1522 ★

W-L

Recent Form

W ★

2-2

BKFC Record

1-1

50%

KO Rate

100% ★

Age

30 ★

68"

Reach

73" ★

2.1y ago

Activity

1.3y ago ★

1/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

67%

Opponent Quality

25%

4 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

5'6"

Height

5'10" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Daniel Alvarez is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Jared Lennon has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Daniel Alvarez can force infighting.

Jared Lennon has finished 100% of BKFC wins by KO — elite finish rate. Going to the cards neutralizes this edge.

Research elsewhere: Daniel Alvarez on Tapology → · Jared Lennon on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

61 ADV

USRyan Petersen

2-2 · age 40

39 ADV

USDarren Whitney

1-1 · age 35 · 77" reach

Predictability

37 Marginal

Model

61%

39%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

Recent Form

—

2-2

BKFC Record

1-1

Age

35 ★

1.3y ago

Activity

—

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

4 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

5'9"

Height

6'0" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Ryan Petersen on Tapology → · Darren Whitney on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

76 ADV

RUEvgenii Kurdanov

5-3 · age 31 · 69" reach

24 ADV

Eric Lopez

0-1

Predictability

52 Marginal

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1522

ELO Rating

1478

Recent Form

5-3

BKFC Record

0-0

1d ago

Activity

1d ago

0 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

—

Opponent Quality

63% ★

8 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Research elsewhere: Evgenii Kurdanov on Tapology → · Eric Lopez on Tapology →

Preliminary · Cruiserweight

67 ADV

USKeith Richardson

5-2 · age 42 · 68" reach

33 ADV

USDevon Schwan

1-0 · age 43

Predictability

43 Marginal

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1568

ELO Rating

1481

W-L-W-W-W

Recent Form

5-2

BKFC Record

1-0

60%

KO Rate

—

Age

1d ago

Activity

1d ago

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

40%

Opponent Quality

71% ★

7 fights

BKFC Experience

1 fights

5'6"

Height

6'2" ★

United States

Home

United States

Research elsewhere: Keith Richardson on Tapology → · Devon Schwan on Tapology →

Preliminary · Cruiserweight

#10

68 ADV

USIman Williams

2-0 · age 32 · 77" reach

32 ADV

Cody Kerr

0-1

Predictability

35 Marginal

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1541

ELO Rating

1479

W-W

Recent Form

2-0

BKFC Record

0-0

50%

KO Rate

—

1d ago

Activity

1d ago

0 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

40%

Opponent Quality

100% ★

2 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

United States

Home

—

Research elsewhere: Iman Williams on Tapology → · Cody Kerr on Tapology →

Preliminary · Welterweight

#11

29 ADV

Ethan Trout

0-0

71 ADV

USSteven Sainsbury

1-0 · age 34 · 81" reach

Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier

Model

29%

71%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

1-0 ★

0 fights

BKFC Experience

1 fights

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Ethan Trout is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Steven Sainsbury's experience.

Research elsewhere: Ethan Trout on Tapology → · Steven Sainsbury on Tapology →

Preliminary · Bantamweight

#12

57 ADV

Ricardo Talavera Jr.

0-0

43 ADV

USVictor Flor

0-1 · 69" reach

Predictability ⚠ Limited BKFC signal — both fighters debut-tier

Model

57%

43%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-1

0 fights

BKFC Experience

1 fights

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Ricardo Talavera Jr. is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Victor Flor's experience.

Research elsewhere: Ricardo Talavera Jr. on Tapology → · Victor Flor on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%

Model accuracy

on 139 historical picks

+9pp

Edge over 50/50

vs coin-flip baseline

362

Bouts backtested

point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)

18%

Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)

14%

BKFC KO rate / finishing ability

13%

Age curve (steep decline past 35)

12%

Reach advantage

10%

Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)

MMA-background depth

Activity / ring rust

Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)

Strength of schedule

BKFC experience (fight count)

Height advantage

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=100)

59.0%

BKFC Record (n=106)

58.5%

Reach (n=132)

52.3%

Height (n=117)

52.1%

Age (n=161)

50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.