Fight Research

BKFC 89 Palm Desert: Herring vs. Maness

Saturday, May 23, 2026 In 36 days Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert · United States

Model v0.1.0 · 59.8% hit rate 12 bouts Model 8:43 PM

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Every bout on the card

Main Event · Bantamweight BKFC Bantamweight Championship

33 ADV

Jamel Herring

0-0 · age 40

67 ADV

🇺🇸Nate Maness

0-0 · age 34 · 72" reach

Predictability

37 Marginal

Model

33%

67%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

34 ★

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

5'10"

Height

5'10"

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Jamel Herring is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Jamel Herring on Tapology → · Nate Maness on Tapology →

Co-Main · Light Heavyweight

32 ADV

🇺🇸Cody Vidal

0-1-1 · age 37 · 74" reach

68 ADV

🇺🇸Jomi Escoboza

0-0 · age 35 · 76" reach

Predictability

38 Marginal

Model

32%

68%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1482

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

— ★

0-1-1

BKFC Record

0-0 ★

Age

74"

Reach

76" ★

2.0y ago

Activity

—

1/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

40%

Opponent Quality

—

2 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Jomi Escoboza is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Cody Vidal's experience.

Research elsewhere: Cody Vidal on Tapology → · Jomi Escoboza on Tapology →

Featured Bout · Heavyweight

44 ADV

🇺🇸Chase Gormley

0-1 · age 42 · 78" reach

56 ADV

🇧🇷Levi Costa

0-0 · age 40

Predictability

21 Weak signal

Model

44%

56%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1478

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

— ★

0-1

BKFC Record

0-0 ★

Age

40 ★

Reach

—

1.2y ago

Activity

—

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

100%

Opponent Quality

—

1 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

United States

Home

Brazil

Things to consider

Levi Costa is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Chase Gormley's experience.

Research elsewhere: Chase Gormley on Tapology → · Levi Costa on Tapology →

Main Card · Heavyweight

41 ADV

Eric Soto

0-0

59 ADV

🇺🇸Juan Figuerva

0-0 · age 36 · 72" reach

Predictability

33 Weak signal

Model

41%

59%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

—

Age

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

—

Height

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Eric Soto on Tapology → · Juan Figuerva on Tapology →

Main Card · Bantamweight

65 ADV

🇺🇸David Diaz

0-0-1 · age 36 · 68" reach

35 ADV

🇺🇸Anthony Sanchez

0-2 · age 34 · 67" reach

Predictability

45 Marginal

Model

65%

35%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

—

ELO Rating

1463

—

Recent Form

L-L

0-0-1

BKFC Record

0-2

Age

34 ★

68"

Reach

67"

—

Activity

2.1y ago

0 cuts

Cut History

0/2 cuts

—

Opponent Quality

56%

1 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

United States

Home

United States

Research elsewhere: David Diaz on Tapology → · Anthony Sanchez on Tapology →

Main Card · Bantamweight

36 ADV

🇺🇸Daniel Alvarez

1-1 · age 36 · 68" reach

64 ADV

🇺🇸Jared Lennon

1-0 · age 30 · 73" reach

Predictability

46 Marginal

Model

36%

64%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1497

ELO Rating

1522 ★

W-L

Recent Form

W ★

1-1

BKFC Record

1-0 ★

100%

KO Rate

100%

Age

30 ★

68"

Reach

73" ★

2.0y ago

Activity

1.2y ago ★

1/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

67%

Opponent Quality

25%

2 fights

BKFC Experience

1 fights

5'6"

Height

5'10" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Daniel Alvarez is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Jared Lennon has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Daniel Alvarez can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Daniel Alvarez on Tapology → · Jared Lennon on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

65 ADV

🇺🇸Ryan Petersen

1-0 · age 40

35 ADV

🇺🇸Darren Whitney

0-0 · age 35 · 77" reach

Predictability

28 Weak signal

Model

65%

35%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1520

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

—

1-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

35 ★

—

Reach

1.2y ago

Activity

—

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

50%

Opponent Quality

—

1 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

5'9"

Height

6'0" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Darren Whitney is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Ryan Petersen's experience.

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Ryan Petersen on Tapology → · Darren Whitney on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

50 ADV

🇷🇺Evgenii Kurdanov

0-0 · age 31 · 69" reach

50 ADV

Eric Lopez

0-0

Predictability

18 Weak signal

Model

50%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

—

Reach

—

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Evgenii Kurdanov on Tapology → · Eric Lopez on Tapology →

Preliminary · Cruiserweight

62 ADV

🇺🇸Keith Richardson

4-1 · age 42 · 68" reach

38 ADV

🇺🇸Devon Schwan

0-0 · age 43 · 72" reach

Predictability

27 Weak signal

Model

62%

38%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1549

ELO Rating

—

L-W-W-W-W

Recent Form

—

4-1

BKFC Record

0-0

75%

KO Rate

—

Age

68"

Reach

72" ★

1.1y ago

Activity

—

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

10%

Opponent Quality

— ★

5 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

5'6"

Height

6'2" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Devon Schwan is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Keith Richardson's experience.

Devon Schwan has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Keith Richardson can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Keith Richardson on Tapology → · Devon Schwan on Tapology →

Preliminary · Cruiserweight

#10

75 ADV

🇺🇸Iman Williams

1-0 · age 32 · 77" reach

25 ADV

Cody Kerr

0-0

Predictability

39 Marginal

Model

75%

25%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1521

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

—

1-0

BKFC Record

0-0

100%

KO Rate

—

Age

—

Reach

—

1.2y ago

Activity

—

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

Opponent Quality

— ★

1 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

United States

Home

—

Things to consider

Cody Kerr is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Iman Williams's experience.

Research elsewhere: Iman Williams on Tapology → · Cody Kerr on Tapology →

Preliminary · Welterweight

#11

41 ADV

Ethan Trout

0-0

59 ADV

🇺🇸Steven Sainsbury

0-0 · age 34 · 81" reach

Predictability

33 Weak signal

Model

41%

59%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

—

Age

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

—

Height

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Ethan Trout on Tapology → · Steven Sainsbury on Tapology →

Preliminary · Bantamweight

#12

41 ADV

Ricardo Talavera Jr.

0-0

59 ADV

🇺🇸Victor Flor

0-0 · 69" reach

Predictability

33 Weak signal

Model

41%

59%

Model and market agree closely.

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

—

Height

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Research elsewhere: Ricardo Talavera Jr. on Tapology → · Victor Flor on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.8%

Model accuracy

on 127 historical picks

+9.8pp

Edge over 50/50

vs coin-flip baseline

325

Bouts backtested

point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)

18%

Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)

14%

BKFC KO rate / finishing ability

13%

Age curve (steep decline past 35)

12%

Reach advantage

10%

Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)

MMA-background depth

Activity / ring rust

Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)

Strength of schedule

BKFC experience (fight count)

Height advantage

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=90)

57.8%

BKFC Record (n=96)

57.3%

Reach (n=140)

52.1%

Height (n=93)

50.5%

Age (n=147)

49.0%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.8% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.