Fight Research

BKFC 88 Denver: Camozzi vs. Rodriguez

Friday, April 17, 2026 CoBank Arena at the National Western Center · Denver · United States
Model v0.1.0 · 59.0% hit rate 10 bouts Avg edge 7.2pt Model 8:02 PM ET Odds 7:27 AM ET
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Where the data disagrees with the market

#1
Featured · Heavyweight
Corey Willis
Advantage 51 · Market 39%
+12.4PT
Predictability 37
#2
Main Event · Cruiserweight
Esteban Rodriguez
Advantage 56 · Market 45%
+11.7PT
Predictability 72
#3
Main Card · Cruiserweight
Jared Torgenson
Advantage 23 · Market 13%
+9.6PT
Predictability 53

Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.

Every bout on the card

Main Event · Cruiserweight Interim BKFC Cruiserweight Championship
#1
44 ADV
USChris Camozzi
4-2 · age 39 · 78" reach
VS
56 ADV
USEsteban Rodriguez
6-1 · age 34 · 81" reach
Predictability
72 Solid
✓ — / 205.0
Esteban Rodriguez def. Chris Camozzi via KO · Round 4
Our pre-fight pick: Esteban Rodriguez ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1496
ELO Rating
1548 ★
L-W
Recent Form
W-W ★
4-2
BKFC Record
5-1 ★
—
KO Rate
100% ★
39
Age
34 ★
78"
Reach
81" ★
27-15
MMA Background
1-4
counter / volume
Style
ko-hunter / power ★
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
42%
Opponent Quality
33%
6 fights
BKFC Experience
6 fights
6'3"
Height
6'4" ★
United States
Home
United States

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Esteban Rodriguez has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Chris Camozzi can force infighting.

Chris Camozzi brings 42+ pro MMA fights (27-15) of combat experience. It transfers mentally even though MMA striking is not bare knuckle.

Research elsewhere: Chris Camozzi on Tapology → · Esteban Rodriguez on Tapology →
Co-Main · Lightweight
#2
Ramiro Figueroa 66 ADV
USRamiro Figueroa
5-1 · age 23 · 75" reach
VS
Elvin Brito 34 ADV
PRElvin Brito
7-7 · age 40 · 70" reach
Predictability
78 Strong
⚠ Brito missed by 0.7 lbs
Ramiro Figueroa def. Elvin Brito via Unanimous Decision · Round 5
Our pre-fight pick: Ramiro Figueroa ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1518
ELO Rating
1466
W
Recent Form
L-L-W-L
4-1
BKFC Record
7-6
23
Age
40
—
Weigh-In
155.0 lbs (+0.7)
75"
Reach
70"
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/3 cuts
54%
Opponent Quality
45%
5 fights
BKFC Experience
13 fights ★
5'11"
Height
5'8"
United States
Home
Puerto Rico

Things to consider

Elvin Brito is 17 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Ramiro Figueroa has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Elvin Brito can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Ramiro Figueroa on Tapology → · Elvin Brito on Tapology →
Featured Bout · Heavyweight
#3
Josh Copeland 49 ADV
USJosh Copeland
2-3 · age 43 · 75" reach
VS
Corey Willis 51 ADV
USCorey Willis
3-1 · age 39
Predictability
37 Marginal
⚠ Willis missed by 0.0 lbs
Corey Willis def. Josh Copeland via TKO · Round 2
Our pre-fight pick: Corey Willis ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1457
ELO Rating
1521 ★
L-L
Recent Form
W ★
2-2
BKFC Record
2-1 ★
43
Age
39 ★
265.0 lbs (+0.4)
Weigh-In
254.8 lbs
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0/2 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
83%
Opponent Quality
50%
4 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
6'1"
Height
6'2" ★
United States
Home
United States

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Josh Copeland on Tapology → · Corey Willis on Tapology →
Main Card · Cruiserweight
#4
Josh Fremd 77 ADV
USJosh Fremd
1-0 · age 32 · 78" reach
VS
23 ADV
Jared Torgenson
0-1
Predictability
53 Marginal
⚠ Both missed weight
Josh Fremd def. Jared Torgenson via KO · Round 1
Our pre-fight pick: Josh Fremd ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1522
ELO Rating
1478
W
Recent Form
L
1-0
BKFC Record
0-1
100%
KO Rate
—
204.4 lbs
Weigh-In
211.4 lbs (+6.4)
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
0%
Opponent Quality
100% ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
United States
Home
—
Research elsewhere: Josh Fremd on Tapology → · Jared Torgenson on Tapology →
Main Card · Welterweight
#5
Andrew Yates 38 ADV
USAndrew Yates
3-2 · age 37 · 73" reach
VS
Rodney Hinton 62 ADV
USRodney Hinton
2-0 · age 28 · 77" reach
Predictability
42 Marginal
⚠ Yates missed by 0.0 lbs
Rodney Hinton def. Andrew Yates via TKO · Round 1
Our pre-fight pick: Rodney Hinton ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1478
ELO Rating
1522 ★
L
Recent Form
W ★
3-1
BKFC Record
1-0
37
Age
28 ★
164.4 lbs
Weigh-In
165.0 lbs
73"
Reach
77" ★
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
100%
Opponent Quality
75%
4 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
5'10"
Height
5'11" ★
United States
Home
United States

Things to consider

Andrew Yates is 9 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Rodney Hinton has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Andrew Yates can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Andrew Yates on Tapology → · Rodney Hinton on Tapology →
Main Card · Cruiserweight
#6
Deron Winn 66 ADV
USDeron Winn
1-0 · age 36
VS
Erick Lozano 34 ADV
USErick Lozano
3-6 · age 42 · 71" reach
Predictability
43 Marginal
⚠ Both missed weight
Deron Winn def. Erick Lozano via TKO · Round 3
Our pre-fight pick: Deron Winn ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1522
ELO Rating
1475
W
Recent Form
L-L-W
1-0
BKFC Record
3-5
100%
KO Rate
—
36
Age
42
201.6 lbs
Weigh-In
205.6 lbs (+0.6)
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/2 cuts
38%
Opponent Quality
50% ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
8 fights ★
5'6"
Height
5'10" ★
United States
Home
United States

Things to consider

Erick Lozano is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Deron Winn on Tapology → · Erick Lozano on Tapology →
Main Card · Bantamweight
#7
Noah Aldana 61 ADV
Noah Aldana
0-0
VS
Nick Burgos 39 ADV
USNick Burgos
0-2 · age 46 · 68" reach
Predictability
24 Weak signal
Model
61%
39%
Line movement · last 3 snapshots · 2h span
OPEN +308 / -556 CLOSE +314 / -556
Model and market agree closely.
Very Low confidence
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
0-0
BKFC Record
0-2
0 fights
BKFC Experience
2 fights
—
Home
United States ★

Things to consider

Noah Aldana is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Nick Burgos's experience.

Research elsewhere: Noah Aldana on Tapology → · Nick Burgos on Tapology →
Preliminary · Flyweight
#8
Octavion Turner 60 ADV
USOctavion Turner
2-0 · age 31 · 66" reach
VS
Joby Steffensmeier 40 ADV
USJoby Steffensmeier
0-1 · age 30 · 67" reach
Predictability
36 Marginal
✓ 124.8 / 125.0
Octavion Turner def. Joby Steffensmeier via Unanimous Decision · Round 5
Our pre-fight pick: Octavion Turner ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1519
ELO Rating
1481
W
Recent Form
L
1-0
BKFC Record
0-1
31
Age
30
124.8 lbs
Weigh-In
124.8 lbs
66"
Reach
67" ★
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/1 cuts
0%
Opponent Quality
100% ★
1 fights
BKFC Experience
1 fights
5'6"
Height
5'7" ★
United States
Home
United States
Research elsewhere: Octavion Turner on Tapology → · Joby Steffensmeier on Tapology →
Preliminary · Flyweight
#9
Angelo Trujillo 45 ADV
USAngelo Trujillo
0-2 · age 28
VS
Anthony Yost 55 ADV
USAnthony Yost
2-2 · age 32 · 66" reach
Predictability
30 Weak signal
⚠ Both missed weight
Anthony Yost def. Angelo Trujillo via Unanimous Decision · Round 3
Our pre-fight pick: Anthony Yost ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1481
ELO Rating
1519 ★
L
Recent Form
W ★
0-1
BKFC Record
1-2
28
Age
32
121.2 lbs
Weigh-In
126.2 lbs (+1.2)
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0/1 cuts
Cut History
0 cuts
33%
Opponent Quality
0%
1 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
5'7"
Height
5'5"
United States
Home
United States

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Angelo Trujillo on Tapology → · Anthony Yost on Tapology →
Preliminary · Lightweight
#10
Matt Maestas 68 ADV
USMatt Maestas
2-3 · age 39 · 72" reach
VS
Ruben Arroyo 32 ADV
USRuben Arroyo
0-4 · age 38 · 69.5" reach
Predictability
63 Solid
⚠ Arroyo missed by 0.0 lbs
Matt Maestas def. Ruben Arroyo via TKO · Round 2
Our pre-fight pick: Matt Maestas ✓
Tale of the tape · factor breakdown
1521
ELO Rating
1456
W
Recent Form
L-L
1-3
BKFC Record
0-3
100%
KO Rate
—
39
Age
38
154.8 lbs (+0.5)
Weigh-In
153.6 lbs
72"
Reach
69.5"
1d ago
Activity
1d ago
0 cuts
Cut History
0/2 cuts
0%
Opponent Quality
38% ★
4 fights
BKFC Experience
3 fights
5'11"
Height
5'7"
United States
Home
United States
Research elsewhere: Matt Maestas on Tapology → · Ruben Arroyo on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.0%
Model accuracy
on 139 historical picks
+9pp
Edge over 50/50
vs coin-flip baseline
362
Bouts backtested
point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)
18%
Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)
14%
BKFC KO rate / finishing ability
13%
Age curve (steep decline past 35)
12%
Reach advantage
10%
Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)
8%
MMA-background depth
8%
Activity / ring rust
7%
Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)
6%
Strength of schedule
5%
BKFC experience (fight count)
5%
Height advantage
4%

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=100)
59.0%
BKFC Record (n=106)
58.5%
Reach (n=132)
52.3%
Height (n=117)
52.1%
Age (n=161)
50.9%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.0% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.