Fight Research

BKFC 88 Denver: Camozzi vs. Rodriguez

Saturday, April 18, 2026 Tomorrow CoBank Arena at the National Western Center · Denver · United States

Model v0.1.0 · 59.8% hit rate 10 bouts Avg edge 7.5pt Model 8:43 PM Odds 8:05 PM

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Where the data disagrees with the market

Main Card · Cruiserweight

Jared Torgenson

Advantage 30 · Market 13%

+17.2PT

Predictability 39

Featured · Heavyweight

Corey Willis

Advantage 51 · Market 40%

Advantage 36 · Market 25%

+10.7PT

Predictability 23

Edges are the gap between the model's probability and the de-vigged market probability. Higher edge = more potential value. ⚠ = low data confidence.

Every bout on the card

Main Event · Cruiserweight Interim BKFC Cruiserweight Championship

47 ADV

🇺🇸Chris Camozzi

4-2 · age 39 · 78" reach

53 ADV

🇺🇸Esteban Rodriguez

5-1 · age 34 · 81" reach

Predictability

69 Solid

Model

47%

53%

Market

56%-153

+10744%

★ Model likes Esteban Rodriguez +9.0 pts vs market

High confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1522

ELO Rating

1522

Recent Form

4-2

BKFC Record

5-1 ★

—

KO Rate

100% ★

Age

34 ★

78"

Reach

81" ★

27-15

MMA Background

1-4

counter / volume

Style

ko-hunter / power ★

3.0y ago

Activity

2.9y ago

0 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

42%

Opponent Quality

33%

6 fights

BKFC Experience

6 fights

6'3"

Height

6'4" ★

Southpaw

Stance

—

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

5-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Esteban Rodriguez has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Chris Camozzi can force infighting.

Chris Camozzi brings 42+ pro MMA fights (27-15) of combat experience. It transfers mentally even though MMA striking is not bare knuckle.

Research elsewhere: Chris Camozzi on Tapology → · Esteban Rodriguez on Tapology →

Co-Main · Lightweight

65 ADV

🇺🇸Ramiro Figueroa

4-1 · age 23 · 75" reach

35 ADV

🇵🇷Elvin Brito

7-6 · age 40 · 70" reach

Predictability

74 Solid

Model

65%

35%

Market

69%-299

+19631%

Model and market agree closely.

High confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

—

ELO Rating

1484

—

Recent Form

L-W-L

4-1

BKFC Record

7-6

Age

75"

Reach

70"

pressure / volume

Style

—

Activity

1.2y ago ★

0 cuts

Cut History

0/2 cuts

—

Opponent Quality

45%

5 fights

BKFC Experience

13 fights ★

5'11"

Height

5'8"

United States

Home

Puerto Rico

Things to consider

Elvin Brito is 17 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Ramiro Figueroa has a 5" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Elvin Brito can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Ramiro Figueroa on Tapology → · Elvin Brito on Tapology →

Featured Bout · Heavyweight

49 ADV

🇺🇸Josh Copeland

2-2 · age 43 · 75" reach

51 ADV

🇺🇸Corey Willis

2-1 · age 39 · 72" reach

Predictability

50 Marginal

Model

49%

51%

Market

60%-190

+13340%

★ Model likes Corey Willis +11.0 pts vs market

Medium confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1478

ELO Rating

—

Recent Form

— ★

2-2

BKFC Record

2-1 ★

Age

39 ★

75"

Reach

72"

power / power-only

Style

—

3.0y ago

Activity

— ★

0/1 cuts

Cut History

0 cuts

83%

Opponent Quality

—

4 fights

BKFC Experience

3 fights

6'1"

Height

6'2" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Josh Copeland has a 3" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Corey Willis can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Josh Copeland on Tapology → · Corey Willis on Tapology →

Main Card · Cruiserweight

70 ADV

🇺🇸Josh Fremd

0-0 · age 32 · 78" reach

30 ADV

Jared Torgenson

0-0

Predictability

39 Marginal

Model

70%

30%

Market

87%-1807

+60813%

⚠️ Model likes Jared Torgenson +17.2 pts vs market

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

—

Reach

—

counter / volume

Style

—

0 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

Height

—

United States

Home

—

Things to consider

Both fighters making their BKFC debut. No bare knuckle data to lean on — style matchup, MMA background, and camp reports matter more than records here.

Model and market disagree by 17.2pt toward Jared Torgenson — but confidence is low and the market may know something the data does not. Lines move for reasons: injuries, weight miss, camp news. Check BKFC weigh-in results before betting.

Research elsewhere: Josh Fremd on Tapology → · Jared Torgenson on Tapology →

Main Card · Welterweight

39 ADV

🇺🇸Andrew Yates

3-1 · age 37 · 73" reach

61 ADV

🇺🇸Rodney Hinton

1-0 · age 28 · 77" reach

Predictability

42 Marginal

Model

39%

61%

Market

36%+154

-22664%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

3-1

BKFC Record

1-0

Age

28 ★

73"

Reach

77" ★

—

Style

pressure / power

4 fights

BKFC Experience

1 fights

5'10"

Height

5'11" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Andrew Yates is 9 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Rodney Hinton has a 4" reach advantage — extra distance to land clean jabs and stay outside the pocket unless Andrew Yates can force infighting.

Research elsewhere: Andrew Yates on Tapology → · Rodney Hinton on Tapology →

Main Card · Cruiserweight

59 ADV

🇺🇸Deron Winn

0-0 · age 36

41 ADV

🇺🇸Erick Lozano

3-5 · age 42 · 71" reach

Predictability

39 Marginal

Model

59%

41%

Market

63%-208

+14737%

Model and market agree closely.

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

—

ELO Rating

1497

—

Recent Form

L-W

0-0

BKFC Record

3-5

Age

—

Reach

pressure / cardio

Style

—

Activity

2.0y ago

0 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

—

Opponent Quality

25%

0 fights

BKFC Experience

8 fights ★

5'6"

Height

5'10" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Deron Winn is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Erick Lozano's experience.

Erick Lozano is 6 years older. In bare knuckle, hand durability and cut vulnerability decline fast past 35 — this is a meaningful physical gap.

Research elsewhere: Deron Winn on Tapology → · Erick Lozano on Tapology →

Main Card · Bantamweight

69 ADV

Noah Aldana

0-0

31 ADV

🇺🇸Nick Burgos

0-2 · age 46 · 68" reach

Predictability

29 Weak signal

Model

69%

31%

Market

78%-556

+31422%

⚠️ Model likes Nick Burgos +8.3 pts vs market

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-0

BKFC Record

0-2

—

Age

—

Reach

0 fights

BKFC Experience

2 fights

—

Height

—

Home

United States ★

Things to consider

Noah Aldana is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Nick Burgos's experience.

Research elsewhere: Noah Aldana on Tapology → · Nick Burgos on Tapology →

Preliminary · Flyweight

64 ADV

🇺🇸Octavion Turner

1-0 · age 31 · 66" reach

36 ADV

🇺🇸Joby Steffensmeier

0-0 · age 30 · 67" reach

Predictability

23 Weak signal

Model

64%

36%

Market

75%-455

+26725%

⚠️ Model likes Joby Steffensmeier +10.7 pts vs market

Very Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

1-0

BKFC Record

0-0

Age

66"

Reach

67" ★

1 fights

BKFC Experience

0 fights

5'6"

Height

5'7" ★

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

Joby Steffensmeier is making their BKFC debut. The gap from gloved boxing/MMA to bare knuckle is real — cuts, hand swelling, and 2-minute rounds all favor Octavion Turner's experience.

Research elsewhere: Octavion Turner on Tapology → · Joby Steffensmeier on Tapology →

Preliminary · Flyweight

48 ADV

🇺🇸Angelo Trujillo

0-1 · age 28

52 ADV

🇺🇸Anthony Yost

1-2 · age 32 · 66" reach

Predictability

21 Weak signal

Model

48%

52%

Market

40%+128

-19660%

⚠️ Model likes Angelo Trujillo +8.4 pts vs market

Low confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

0-1

BKFC Record

1-2

Age

—

Reach

1 fights

BKFC Experience

3 fights

5'7"

Height

5'5"

United States

Home

United States

Things to consider

4-year age gap favors the younger fighter. Watch for cardio and hand durability in the later rounds.

Research elsewhere: Angelo Trujillo on Tapology → · Anthony Yost on Tapology →

Preliminary · Lightweight

#10

64 ADV

🇺🇸Matt Maestas

0-3 · age 39 · 72" reach

36 ADV

🇺🇸Ruben Arroyo

0-3 · age 38 · 69.5" reach

Predictability

60 Solid

Model

64%

36%

Market

64%-233

+15036%

Model and market agree closely.

Medium confidence

Tale of the tape · factor breakdown

—

ELO Rating

1477

—

Recent Form

0-3

BKFC Record

0-3

Age

72"

Reach

69.5"

—

Activity

1.1y ago ★

0 cuts

Cut History

0/1 cuts

—

Opponent Quality

25%

3 fights

BKFC Experience

3 fights

5'11"

Height

5'7"

United States

Home

United States

Research elsewhere: Matt Maestas on Tapology → · Ruben Arroyo on Tapology →

How we predict — and how accurate we've been

59.8%

Model accuracy

on 127 historical picks

+9.8pp

Edge over 50/50

vs coin-flip baseline

325

Bouts backtested

point-in-time, no leakage

The PropsBot model is a transparent factor-based scoring system — not a black box. For every bout we score the two fighters on ten+ dimensions, combine via weighted sum, and convert to a probability via a logistic function. That model probability is then compared to the de-vigged moneyline from the market to flag potential value.

BKFC win rate (Bayesian-smoothed)

18%

Recent form (last 5, decay 0.85ⁱ)

14%

BKFC KO rate / finishing ability

13%

Age curve (steep decline past 35)

12%

Reach advantage

10%

Style matchup (pressure/counter/etc)

MMA-background depth

Activity / ring rust

Cut susceptibility (past DS losses)

Strength of schedule

BKFC experience (fight count)

Height advantage

Per-factor accuracy from our point-in-time backtest (skipped where data is thin):

Recent Form (n=90)

57.8%

BKFC Record (n=96)

57.3%

Reach (n=140)

52.1%

Height (n=93)

50.5%

Age (n=147)

49.0%

Each factor's edge strength is its own sub-score — a 1" reach gap barely moves the needle; a 6" gap is meaningful. Missing data drops a factor's weight to zero rather than guessing.

Be honest with yourself: 59.8% accuracy on toss-up-filtered picks means we're wrong roughly 4 out of every 10 bets we recommend. The model is a decision aid, not a crystal ball. BKFC intangibles (cut depth, weight cut, camp news, injuries) aren't fully captured. Never bet more than you can lose on a pick without confirming with additional research.